Let me say straight up that I should not have to write this article. It should be so obvious that in any PPR format, your near absolute preference should be to put WRs in the Flex. The response to this article should be, “Oh, come on, Mike, tell me something I don’t know!”
I’m sad to report that many don’t know it. In fact, I hear “experts” all the time talking about ideal third RBs for their PPR Flex. Let me say it plainly: There is no ideal running back for your PPR Flex. It’s sub-optimal. Decidedly so. We talk all the time about increasing win probability in your leagues by just doing easy structural things that have nothing to do with player picking yet increase your odds of qualifying for the playoffs/winning your league by at least 50% (from about 8.5% to about 13%). Remember, picking players is really hard, largely random and really no one can reliably do it year after year. For god’s sake, NFL teams can’t even reliably pick players — and that’s all they do.
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So why flex WRs in PPR? It’s just math. You are raising your weekly points ceiling without really lowering your floor. You have to look at your WRs as a group. Each has some chance, ranging from about 10% to 30%, to post a monster week. Would you rather have two of these tickets, or three, and even four (depending on whether you play Flex 9 or Flex 10, more on that later)?
Let’s look at the numbers from 2021 to illustrate the point, data courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.
20-point+ PPR weeks: 206 for WRs and 155 for RBs. So 33% more for WRs.
25-point+ PPR weeks: 92 for WRs, 64 for RBs, so 44% more for WRs.
30-point+ PPR weeks: 43 for WRs, 23 for RBs, 87% more for WRs.
I thought the 20-point spread would be closer. But I knew the more points we sorted by, the more the advantage would swing to WRs. And that’s exactly what happened even though WRs massacred RBs even in 20+ PPR points. When you get to the level of PPR performance where one player basically wins you the week, 30+ points, a WR is almost twice as likely to do it than a RB.
Even though I know the results will be similar, let’s do 2020:
20+: 221 WRs, 141 RBs (43% more for WRs)
25+: 102 WRs, 67 RBs (52% more)
30+: 41 for WRs, 25 for RBs (64% more)
No need to go further with this. It’s always going to be true that WRs are more explosive than RBs in PPR. It was the entire reason PPR was invented, for cryin’ out loud — to hurt the value of RBs.
Let me now turn to the format issue that is by far the most important thing to qualify when you’re asking a question or deciding on what position to draft. It’s something no one talks about. PPR vs. Standard doesn’t matter nearly as much as this. What am I talking about?
Are you Flex 9 or Flex 10?
Flex 9 is two WRs and one Flex. Flex 10 is three WRs and one Flex. It’s how many starters you have including your Flex.
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I will speak for the expert community and tell you that we do overall ranks for Flex 10. Many major structural strategies like zeroRB or avoiding dead zone running backs in Rounds 3-5, and anything else that tries to convince you to prioritize WRs in your roster construction, assumes you play Flex 10. If you play Flex 9, forget all this. You have to prioritize RBs. The team with the best RBs even in full PPR is probably going to win/have the most points. Everyone has to play basically the same way.
So then in Flex 9, flex RBs, right?
NO!!! The one way you can get a major structural edge in Flex 9 PPR is to flex a WR. It’s far more advantageous to do it here than in Flex 10. Again, the math is simple.
In Flex 10, flexing a WR gives you 33% more WRs (four instead of three). Fantastic.
In Flex 9, flexing a WR gives you 50% more WRs (three instead of two). Even more fantastic. Again, this significantly increases the odds that you get multiple good weeks or one monster week out of your WRs.
(As an aside, in Flex 9, a TE who would be equivalent to a Top 20 WR is THE most important edge you can get just because there are less active players for your opponent to make up for your expected edge at the TE position.)
I’m not even going to get into who you should draft for your Flex here. It really doesn’t matter as far as your win probability boost. You just want as many Top 30 (or Top 35 or Top 40) receivers you can get. It’s marginal whether I think a guy is Top 25 or just Top 35. The point is that you get the higher expected win probability as long as you are drafting WRs for your Flex in the ballpark of their ADPs… though the higher, the better.
In Flex 9 PPR, my ideal draft (first eight rounds) would be RB, TE, RB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB.
In Flex 10 PPR, it would be RB, TE, WR, WR, WR, WR, RB, WR
(Top photo: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports)
