Kelvin Kiptum lit the marathoning world aflame Sunday in Chicago, running a record-breaking time of 2:00:35 to take 34 seconds off Eliud Kipchoge’s previous best. In the process, Kiptum took a major stride closer to becoming the first man to break the two-hour barrier in a record-eligible race.
Just two weeks ago, Tigst Assefa demolished the women’s world record when she took more than two minutes off the previous mark in Berlin, finishing in 2:11:53.
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Since 2017, the men’s and women’s records have been broken three times each, a historically rapid pace. Kiptum told Olympics.com the world record wasn’t in the plan, “but in the future, I know I can run 2:00 or something like that.” After Sunday’s race, that future is now.
So when might that be? And where could it take place? Let’s look at the most likely candidates:
Berlin Marathon
Date: September 29, 2024
The fastest marathon for the fastest marathoners, the trip to Berlin’s pancake-flat, racetrack-fast course has become an annual trek for elite runners looking to hit career bests. It’s the flattest major marathon and it is run during an ideal time of year, with usually pristine weather and a competitive field. That formula has resulted in 13 world records on the course that starts and ends at the famed Brandenburg Gate.
In 2022, it was in Berlin where Kipchoge set the world record that Kiptum broke. And it was in Berlin in 2018 where Kipchoge set his first world marathon record.
Kiptum has never raced Berlin. If he does in 2024, it would come less than two months after he competes in the Olympics, should he go to Paris. But Kiptum indicated before the Chicago Marathon he was considering Berlin in 2024.
“My plan was to run Chicago all along, and I was never planning to go to Berlin (in 2023),” Kiptum told Olympics.com regarding rumors he was going to challenge Kipchoge this year in Berlin. “I wanted to run Chicago and then maybe next year go to Berlin.”
Of the 12 times a marathoner has broken 2:03, six came in Berlin. Kipchoge has done it three times.
Boston Marathon
Date: April 15, 2024
The most historic and revered marathon, Boston is the place to be on the third Monday of every April to capture the most energetic marathon environment in the world. It’s not, however, the place to be if you’re trying to break a world record.
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Along with its international prestige, what makes Boston a must-run is its signature, quirky course. Featuring a downhill start, winding midsection and the foursome of brutal Newton Hills from miles 16 to 21 that end with the infamous Heartbreak Hill, it’s one of the most challenging courses to strategize for. Those quirks usually result in thrilling drama, but not world records. Despite attracting the best of the best, the men’s race has only produced a winning time faster than 2:06 three times. It humbled Kipchoge in April.
Another key note: Boston isn’t a record-eligible course due to its net downhill elevation — 459 feet from start to finish — and start-to-finish separation. The world was reminded of that when Geoffrey Mutai won the 2011 Boston Marathon in 2:03:02, 57 seconds faster than the world record at the time. While that still stands as the course record, it wasn’t ratified as the world record by World Athletics.
London Marathon
Date: April 27, 2025
If Kiptum goes for the Boston win in 2024 to make a statement, but misses the world record in the fall, could he return to London in the spring of 2025? He ran a 2:01:25 there in April to crush the flat course’s record and clock the second-fastest marathon in history at the time.
London is the go-to spring race for elites looking to put down fast marathon times. As the course winds around the River Thames, the total elevation gain barely eclipses 100 feet. The first four-plus miles are largely downhill and feed into a flat middle section that sets the stage for world-best times.
Seven runners have broken world records in London, most recently Mary Jepkosgei Keitany, who set the women-only marathon record in 2017 with a time of 2:17:01. Paula Radcliffe set the mixed-gender women’s record in 2003 with a time of 2:15:25. Aside from Kiptum’s performance in April, two other men have broken 2:03 on the course — Kipchoge and the man he outkicked for that victory in 2019, Mosinet Geremew.
Summer Olympics in Paris
Date: August 10, 2024
There are lots of reasons why we don’t see world-record times at the Olympics. While shorter-distance running events can benefit from state-of-the-art stadiums, Olympic marathon runners are usually subjected to mid-summer heat in cities that aren’t used to hosting major marathons. Hotter-than-usual races on slapped-together courses is a tough recipe. The Olympic marathon record of 2:06:32, set by Samuel Wanjiru in Beijing in 2008, would have placed sixth at Chicago on Sunday.
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However, Kiptum has already said he wants to race in Paris.
“I am dreaming of the Paris Olympics,” Kiptum said before Chicago. “If I get a chance to be selected by the selectors, I’ll be thankful and I’ll go there and try to win a medal.”
A double Olympic record-world record run in Paris would be gigantic for the sport, but the setting makes those chances slim.
Other possible races
Chicago Marathon
Yes, Kiptum just left his stamp on the race in the most memorable way possible. While there are plenty of other big races for him to win, marathon tradition suggests Kiptum will almost certainly return to race Chicago someday, just as Kipchoge has regularly returned to London and Berlin or former Boston winners like Meb Keflezighi and Lelisa Desisa made annual trips to Beantown after their wins.
Should Kiptum come up short of world-record success on other fast courses, perhaps he returns to the Windy City for another run at the record. Or maybe he loved the course so much Sunday that he’ll scrap his 2024 Berlin plans to make Chicago his fall marathon for a second straight year. Prior to Kiptum’s race Sunday, the race hadn’t hosted a sub-2:04 marathon since 2013.
New York City Marathon
Like Boston, New York City packs all the status and little of the speed. With a 2:05:06 course record, it’s the slowest of the major marathons, and only one winner has broken 2:08 since 2011. That’s not for lack of star power, as legends such as Mutai, Desisa and Geoffrey Kamworor are among the elite winners.
With five bridge crossings amplifying a persistent headwind most years, New York City is a 26.2-mile puzzle to plan for. Patient, strong runners who can handle the rolling hills are rewarded. Overeager pace-pushers can find themselves collapsed in a heap by mile 20, like Daniel Do Nascimento in 2022. Mix in the coin flip of November weather conditions, and New York City is just not the place to go for a world record, especially with faster fall marathons available to those chasing times.
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Tokyo Marathon
The most recent addition to the World Marathon Majors, the Tokyo Marathon runs the first week of March each year and kicks off the circuit of majors. Since it began in 2007, the race has seen two winners dip under 2:04, punctuated by Kipchoge’s course record of 2:02:40 in 2021.
Although the Tokyo field is usually limited by runners preferring to compete in Boston or London later in the spring, it did produce a thrilling three-man sprint that saw Deso Gelmisa take the 2023 title in 2:05:22. Despite being an extremely flat and relatively fast course, it seems to be an unlikely location for the next record-breaking marathon time due to where it falls on the busy racing calendar.
Valencia Marathon
Valencia lacks all the glamor of a major marathon, but it might offer the fastest record-eligible course in the world. Nine men have run under 2:04 there, and if Kiptum wants to get sentimental, he’d be returning to the spot of his debut marathon. In 2022, he ran 2:01:53, the fastest marathon debut in history, and set a new course record in the process.
The third-largest city in Spain has been nicknamed “Ciudad del Running” for the area’s passion for its December race. With large purses funded by eager investors, the race has captured better and better fields each year, and its combination of a flat, fast course with typically perfect weather conditions has resulted in staggering results. Like Kiptum, many elites have gone through Valencia before moving on to conquer bigger races.
Dubai Marathon
Admittedly, the Dubai Marathon is not on many hobby runners’ bucket lists. It’s in an area more known for its brutally arid climate rather than a rabid running scene. But what the event does offer is a history of high-paying purses and a surprisingly deep number of fast performances.
Of the 50 fastest marathons in history, 14 were run in Dubai. That’s more than London, Chicago or Valencia. In 2008, all-time great Haile Gebrselassie won with the second-fastest marathon in history at the time, coming up just short of the million-dollar prize the race was offering to any record breaker. If organizers ponied up another sizable record offer, could it convince someone like Kiptum to give Dubai a go?
Who else could break the record?
While Kiptum is the current front-runner, it’s easy to forget that he wasn’t on many people’s radar a year ago. In a sport that changes so quickly, one of these names, or someone else entirely, could beat Kiptum to the next record.
- Kipchoge: Write off the GOAT at your own risk. Just as everyone began counting Kipchoge out after his disappointing Boston debut, he ran a 2:02:42 to win Berlin. The two-time defending Olympic champ turns 39 in November, but he may have a couple of elite marathons left in the tank.
- Gabriel Geay: The Tanzanian has had a pair of remarkable runner-up performances in the past year, finishing second to Kiptum at the 2022 Valencia Marathon in 2:03:00 and then finishing second at the Boston Marathon in April after holding a strong lead for much of the race.
- Tadese Takele: Takele finished third at Berlin this year, but the 21-year-old announced his arrival in a loud way. The Ethiopian’s 2:03:24 was the fastest marathon by a runner before their 22nd birthday, and it came in his 26.2-mile debut. He competed in the 2020 Olympics in the steeplechase before moving onto the roads, where he ran a 59:41 half marathon in 2022.
What about Kipchoge’s 1:59 marathon?
With all the attention on Kiptum’s new record, it can be easy to forget that Kipchoge still owns the mark for the fastest marathon in history, albeit in a non-record-eligible race.
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Kipchoge’s feat of breaking the two-hour marathon barrier could fit on a sporting Mt. Rushmore with Roger Bannister’s sub-four-minute mile, Wilt Chamberlain’s 100-point game and Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak.
But the context of that event matters, similar to Chamberlain’s record night. No one can dispute that Kipchoge ran those 26.2 miles with his own legs in the verified time of 1:59:40.2, just like the box score doesn’t lie in showing that Chamberlain hit 36 of 63 shots and drained 28 free throws that night in 1962. But the mystique of Chamberlain’s performance is diminished when you consider the 7-foot-1 giant didn’t face an opponent taller than 6-foot-9 that night, or that the pace of play in that era allowed for far more possessions than in today’s game.
Kipchoge completed his sub-two-hour marathon in Vienna, Austria. It was a specially created event featuring rotating pacemakers, hydration delivered by cyclists and a pacing laser provided by an upfront pace car.
All those optimization strategies gave Kipchoge the edge he needed to make history, but the running world awaits its first sub-two-hour time in a record-eligible marathon. Could Kiptum’s next race be the one?
(Top photo: Patrick Gorski / USA Today)
