Immediately after the Canucks acquired Aatu Räty from the Islanders as part of the Bo Horvat trade, I began getting the same two questions from colleagues and fans alike. They were some combination of:
- What do you think of him or what’s his upside?
- I’ve heard his skating’s an issue, will it hold him back from sticking as a centre in the NHL?
In recent days, I’ve set out to try to answer those questions as comprehensively as I can here through a detailed review of his game tape.
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But first, here’s a primer to get you caught up on the kid and the player.
Räty is a 6-foot-2, 190-pound left-shot centre who was, for years, the guy in the 2002 age group in Finland despite his November birthday. His father, Tuomo, was a professional hockey player himself who later became a coach. His mother, Päivi, is a psychologist. His older brother, Aku, is a 2001-born fifth-round pick of the Coyotes and Aatu grew up playing above his group with him in Kärpät’s minor hockey ranks.
Way back in 2018, at just 15 years old, Räty began making headlines in hockey circles when he laid waste to the country’s under-18 circuit. Shortly after his 16th birthday, he then made the jump to Finland’s top under-20 junior ranks, played to nearly a point per game, and made the national team for U18 worlds as a double underager. In the fall of 2019, still just 16 (!), he made his Liiga debut, picking up an assist in his first game and a goal and an assist in his second. A month after his 17th birthday, he was scoring goals in the world juniors still a year and a half out from his draft day.
From there, a media storm in Finland followed him and talk of him being the No. 1 prospect in the 2021 class began.
But then the pandemic hit, he struggled to affirm his place in Kärpät’s lineup, and things began to unravel as he bounced between levels, held meetings with his inner circle and Kärpät staff, wasn’t invited to play for the world juniors team even though he was a returnee, and lost his passion for the game. By the time the draft rolled around, the Islanders were able to pick him 52nd and I was in the minority ranking him 16th on my final draft board (though NHL Central Scouting held him at No. 3 on their final ranking of European skaters behind only would-be top picks William Eklund and Simon Edvinsson).
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During that draft year, coaches, managers and scouts in Finland and with Kärpät described his strengths to The Athletic as his hands in tight, his shot, his hockey IQ, and his ability to both make plays for himself and involve his linemates. They also lauded his work ethic, going as far as to say part of his struggles were the product of burnout due to too much time spent on the ice and in the gym trying to figure it out. They described his weakness as his skating, namely his top speed.
What’s the real story with Aatu Räty, once the front runner for first overall in the #2021NHLDraft?
I spoke to him and those around him to tell it.
On a lost passion for the game, a meeting that changed it, and the bright future that remains:
— Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) June 2, 2021
In his post-draft season, after a move from Kärpät to Jukurit, Räty bounced back in a big way, re-finding himself as a top prospect and playing to a point per game as Liiga’s most productive under-20 skater, signing with the Islanders and scoring his first AHL goal, and then leading the Finns to a silver medal at the summer world juniors with 10 points in seven games as its first-line centre.
This season has been a positive one for the 20-year-old him getting acclimated to the AHL as one of its youngest players — and even scoring his first two NHL goals — as well.
Though he won’t be on my top 50 drafted NHL prospects ranking next week (spoiler alert!), he will be one of its honourable mentions and was the Islanders’ No. 1-ranked prospect in their 2023 prospect pool ranking, which released just a couple of weeks before the trade.
The tape
Note: Räty wears No. 16 in all AHL clips and No. 43 in all NHL ones.
I’ll start with this: I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Räty in the AHL for his age since coming over. He played well for a 19-year-old last spring and this fall, and he has played well for a 20-year-old this winter, establishing himself as an effective player without being a star at the level quite yet.
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When he plays intentionally, keeps his feet moving, and stays between the dots to play a give-and-go game that drives downhill, he’s an impressive player. I’m not as low as his skating as most scouts are, either. There has been progress and I’ve seen him put pro defenders on their heels and consistently enter the zone with control in the middle third in the last year and a half.
His shoulders can sway, and his feet can stomp a little when he’s really emptying the tank in a race, but even though it doesn’t always look pretty, he’s got surprising power and regularly draws penalties through his work ethic pushing down ice.
Watch how he starts the zone exit here with a quick pass back against the grain in his own faceoff circle, and then works to beat his opponents (all of Panthers first-round pick Grigori Denisenko, signee Henry Bowlby, and top prospect Justin Sourdif — a good skater) and draw a penalty here:
You can see some of the shoulder swaying in his push down the ice at the bottom of the frame here, but because he’s got decent dexterity at tempo, he still manages to quickly step around the defender and draw another penalty here, too:
He’s also regularly the most active F1 forechecker on his line, hunting pucks and finishing all of his checks.
And when it’s his job within the structure to support play high in the zone as F3, he does a good job recognizing when to release from that role to pursue. This sequence is one of many good examples that I identified in my review.
Notice where Räty is at the start of the sequence (at the top of the left-wing circle in a support position to cut off the bump pass) while his two linemates pursue the puck down low, and then watch how he tracks the play to the far corner to continue to disrupt himself when the puck switches sides. These details are important as a centre.
There are times when he doesn’t keep his feet moving in defensive zone coverage and can become a little more passively engaged there than he is in the offensive zone without the puck. Watch how he has to reach in here because he doesn’t stick with his man:
But that’s more about learning not to make the same mistake twice and the maturity that will come with repetition and getting burned (he was actually a positive driver of goal differential results in Bridgeport as one of the lone positive players on a negative goal differential team at five-on-five before the trade).
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Offensively, though his one-timer isn’t a regular weapon, his shot does have good variety in other ways.
When he has time to dust it off, he’ll load up a balanced wrister from mid-range and sling it:
When he doesn’t have time, he’s proficient in catching and shooting without needing to dust it off (which some players, even top ones, can struggle with):
And he’s also really comfortable in a curl-and-drag shooting pattern, as seen in this rip from the top of the left-wing circle:
(Notice, early in the above sequence, how he releases from high in the zone to disrupt the play down low again, as well.)
Even though he’s not a volume shooter, those tools should allow him to convert on a healthy percentage at the next level (I don’t think you’re going to see him shoot below 10 percent, for example).
While I wouldn’t call him a natural passer, or super creative, he’ll facilitate quick attacking sequences to his linemates (he has also begun to see the ice and make plays through layers with more regularity).
Watch him lift the puck off the wall, cut to the middle third, and then dish here:
I wouldn’t expect Räty to become a star, but he projects as a middle-six forward long-term because of his pro tools (the size, the quick hands, that shot variety) and I still believe he’ll provide value relative to where he was picked. Slowly but surely he has learned to hang onto the puck when necessary and play quick when required.
As for whether he can stick at centre, that’s a little more complicated.
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According to the scouting service InStat, Räty is 53 percent in the faceoff circle across all 41 of his games played in the AHL and NHL this year with the Islanders and Canucks. So his acumen on faceoffs doesn’t appear to be an issue. He can also take faceoffs both ways (something Sharks prospect Thomas Bordeleau — among a small number of others — has perfected), and will regularly flip his hands and get low to the ice in order to leverage pucks out of the circle with a quick snap-back rather than a battle.
You can see him make the switch before the draw, win it, and then make the switch back here:
Beyond the dot, he’s got the aforementioned size, his attention to detail and support of the play is consistent (as mentioned, with a little work to do to keep moving his feet inside the defensive zone), he works hard on the forecheck and gaining inside lanes in battles. And while his skating isn’t a strength, I don’t think it’s going to be prohibitive, either, and I’m certainly partial to him as a future NHL centre than winger.
Playing down the middle will allow him to remain more involved, will reduce the pressures on his creativity, and will help him get pucks in the middle of the ice, where his dexterity and shot can play to their advantage.
I expect him to become a solid 40 to 50-point player (dependent on linemates and luck, obviously) in the prime of his career if developed properly. That should be what you’re working towards, and I think that can be done with a focus on making it happen down the middle, even if he only tops out as an average skater.
(Photo: Dennis Schneidler / USA Today)
