What Mike White’s return means for the Jets’ QB situation

The Jets woke up Monday, the day after Christmas, and received a great gift: Hope. His name is Mike White.

White was cleared for contact after missing the last two weeks with a ribs injury, so he’ll return and start Sunday against the Seahawks in Seattle, a crucial game for a 7-8 Jets team that can still make a late charge to the playoffs.

After Thursday night’s debacle, that idea felt like nothing more than a pipe dream — even coach Robert Saleh called it “far-fetched.” Zach Wilson — now demoted to third string — crumbled in front of a national audience, was benched for a practice-squad quarterback (Chris Streveler) and the Jets lost to the Jaguars 19-3, their fourth loss in a row and sixth of eight overall. All hope felt gone.

And then, the rest of Week 16 couldn’t have gone much better for the Jets: The Patriots lost to the Bengals, the Dolphins lost to the Packers and now, all of a sudden, the Jets are back in the thick of the playoff race.

GO DEEPER

NFL playoff picture after Week 16: Chargers clinch postseason spot with win over Colts

If they are going to snap out of this late-season tailspin and complete a two-game winning streak against the Seahawks and Dolphins (both on the road), they will do it with White at quarterback. It feels more achievable with White than it did with Wilson or Joe Flacco, and that hope could carry the Jets all the way to the postseason.

“Whenever you’re playing with someone that you feel you have confidence with and confidence with one another and team confidence, it is contagious,” Saleh said. “Obviously, the quarterback does get all that publicity because they’re showcased most, but it’s all over a football team. You can tell when players have confidence in one another and when they don’t.”

Linebacker C.J. Mosley said that Jets players “trust” White.

“There’s a spark when he’s on the field,” Mosley said.

Wilson had an opportunity to steal back the starting job with two winnable (and crucial) games against the Lions and Jaguars, both of whom have bad defenses. Wilson bungled that opportunity, playing poorly in two losses. Now, he’s possibly started his last game for the Jets, while White has a chance to rewrite this team’s plans for the future at quarterback.

Here’s what White’s return means in the short- and long-term for him, for the Jets and for Wilson.

GO DEEPER

Jets' Robert Saleh, Joe Douglas must fix QB issue in 2023. Their jobs depend on it

What this means for the Jets

The Jets opened as 1.5-point underdogs against the Seahawks. After Monday’s news about White’s return, the line flipped and the Jets became two-point favorites. That is no small feat: The Seahawks are reeling, with losses in five of six games, but at 7-8 they are still in the playoff mix and the cross-country trip to Seattle is never an easy one.

The Jets are simply better offensively with White at quarterback than Wilson.

How stark is the difference?

Well, the Jets’ total yardage with White (421.3 per game) would rank first in the NFL. The Jets’ yardage with Wilson (269) would rank last. Wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore, both in on-field demeanor and words, have made it clear which quarterback they prefer.

With Wilson, Garrett Wilson averaged 5.7 targets per game and 13.9 yards per catch with no touchdowns in nine games. Moore averaged 2.5 targets per game and 13.2 yards per catch with no touchdowns in eight games.

In three games with White, Wilson averaged 10 targets per game and 17.6 yards per catch, with two touchdowns. Moore averaged 5.3 targets per game, 14.4 yards per catch and scored one touchdown.

It goes deeper than that, too.

(Stats via TruMedia)

Mike White vs. Zach Wilson, team stats

Mike White	Zach Wilson
Yards per play	5.99	5
Yards per rush	4.63	4.16
Rush yards per game	117.3	100.7
Passing yards per game	304	168.3
Sack rate	3.80%	9.50%
Pressure rate	19.90%	39.80%
EPA/play	0.05	-0.12
Time to throw (seconds)	2.52	3.06

The Jets will need to win their last two games to make the playoffs. Based on the numbers, they are more likely to get there with White at quarterback than Wilson. According to the statistical model of The Athletic’s Austin Mock, the Jets have a 12.6 percent chance of making the playoffs.

According to FiveThirtyEight, their chances jump from 16 percent to 91 percent if they beat both the Seahawks and Dolphins.

What this means for Mike White

The Jets were expected to take steps forward this season, after going 4-13 in 2021, but not make the playoffs. They were to use the year to evaluate Wilson, who went 3-10 in his 13 starts last season.

Instead, they got off to such a fast start (5-2), the playoffs turned into the expectation. Wilson, who missed the first three games with a knee injury, has struggled so much this season, he’s now been benched multiple times. And he was never worse than in Thursday’s second half against the Jaguars, when Streveler came into the game and never left.

Now, all of a sudden, the most important thing about these final two games has nothing to do with Wilson: It’s about evaluating if White might be the answer at quarterback beyond this season.

Internally, it’s on the back of everyone’s minds — even if Saleh isn’t ready to admit that.

“One day at a time on that one,” Saleh said. “We’ve got two (games) now. … I think one thing that (GM Joe Douglas) is really big on, and myself, is that everything is always going to be evaluated after every single day. Not just after every week, or after every season, so like I’ve said before, we’re always going to do what’s best for the organization. There is still a lot of information to gather.”

White’s overall Pro Football Focus grade in three games (73.4) ranks 19th among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts, though White hasn’t played enough to read too much into that. His big-time throw percentage (5.3) ranks eighth. Per TruMedia, his EPA (expected points added) per dropback would rank 10th if he qualified. And his DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) would rank ninth, per Football Outsiders.

Over a full season, that would be a significant upgrade from what the Jets have had at quarterback for most of the last decade, though it obviously hasn’t been perfect. The Jets were 1 of 6 in the red zone in a Week 13 loss to the Vikings, and White didn’t throw any touchdown passes against Minnesota or the Bills. And yet, the numbers say he’s far and away the best option the Jets have at quarterback.

White is a free agent this offseason. Whether it’s for the Jets or someone else, these last two games will go a long way toward determining whether White is a viable option as a starter.

Zach Wilson was benched late in the third quarter against the Jags after passing for just 92 yards. (Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)

What this means for Zach Wilson

Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer over the weekend said the Jets planned to “move on” from Wilson this offseason. Saleh was asked directly about that report on Monday, and he pushed back.

“That report is all speculation,” Saleh said. Wilson “still has a huge plan in our future, and like I said, we’re not quitting on the young man. We’re going to do everything we can to develop him.”

The Jets likely don’t know yet what they plan to do with Wilson this offseason. They presumably understand he’s not the long-term solution, but cutting Wilson wouldn’t be realistic option for salary cap reasons. A trade might wind up being logical.

But the moment Saleh benched Wilson for Streveler, the Jets decided he was no longer actually in their plans. Maybe if White plays well they can create the facade of a quarterback competition in training camp next season, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which Wilson is the starter for the Jets in 2023.

GO DEEPER

Jets' Zach Wilson era is over after loss to Jags, no matter what Robert Saleh says

Saleh is still saying all the right things about Wilson. He reiterated on Monday a lot of the same points he made when Wilson was benched for White the first time around. Wilson will be inactive for the rest of the season and Flacco will be White’s top backup.

“He’s not going to be a kid that quits,” Saleh said of Wilson. “I don’t think he’s looking at this and saying it’s an impossible hill to climb. I think he’s got a road to travel with regards to just tying all the things that we’ve been trying to get done here since the New England game. Still got a lot of faith in him and his ability to work. … And while it doesn’t look good and while it doesn’t seem like there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, you just got to put your head down, just keep working. Eventually, it’ll come through.

“There’s a lot of quarterbacks in this league who have made it out of the dark tunnel … more quarterbacks than not have started in the dungeon and found their way out to sunlight. Got a lot of confidence in him because of how important this is, what kind of a man he is, and how hard he’ll work.”

(Top photo: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)