ATLANTA — When the Atlanta Braves recently declined to pick up Eddie Rosario’s rather modest $9 million option for 2024, it seemed to signal two things: The Braves have a considerably less expensive in-house candidate for left field, and they want to allocate money saved in left field toward an all-out pursuit of their most glaring need, starting pitching.
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The likely in-house candidate is Vaughn Grissom, a middle infielder who is blocked at shortstop by Orlando Arcia and at second base by Ozzie Albies. Grissom’s bat-to-ball skills and athleticism motivated the Braves to try to find a spot for him in the lineup instead of returning him to Triple-A Gwinnett, where he’s done just about all he can.
The MLB team has a hole to fill and a reason to do it at minimal cost. The Braves would pay Grissom more than $8 million less in 2024 than it would have cost to keep Rosario, and that’s money that could help sign a free-agent starter such as Aaron Nola or Sonny Gray. Or, to pay the salary of a front-line starter acquired via trade, such as Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes, a 2021 Cy Young Award winner who’s entering the final year of his contract with a team that looks like it’s in something of a rebuild.
“(Playing Grissom in left field) is a scenario because he’s a tremendous athlete,” said Alex Anthopoulos, Braves president of baseball operations and general manager. “We did it with Austin Riley (who played left field as a rookie in 2019). Guys like Chipper Jones did the same thing. So that could happen. We’re not committed to that. But the fact that he can play short, second and third, we think he’s absolutely athletic enough if we want to put him out in the outfield.”
It should be noted that Burnes, whom the Braves would presumably have hopes of re-signing long-term before giving up considerable young talent in a trade, is represented by powerful agent Scott Boras, who takes most clients to free agency if they get to the final year of their current contracts. Boras also represents the top free-agent starter, Blake Snell, who some believe will command a contract worth at least $200 million.
One more thing seems clear: If the Braves add a front-line starter, as they aim to do, they will have to surpass the current ceiling of $22 million which is the highest single-season salary in any of the long-term extensions they’ve given out in recent years to the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr. (his salary peaks at $17 million), Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Spencer Strider.
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The Olson, Riley and Strider deals peak at $22 million, while Sean Murphy’s salary tops out at $15 million from 2025-2028 plus a $15 million club option for 2029. Michael Harris II, who got a long-term extension after three months in the majors, has a peak salary of $12 million in 2030 in the final guaranteed year of the contract, plus club options of $15 million and $20 million in 2031 and 2032.
The deal for Albies, a three-time All-Star, is arguably the most team-friendly of all Braves contract extensions, with a peak salary of $7 million each season from 2023 through 2025 plus two more club options at that same salary in 2026-2027.
All of those contracts provide an unusual degree of long-term cost control for the Braves, one of MLB’s most profitable organizations since moving to Truist Park and The Battery in 2017. They can afford to splurge for a starting pitcher whenever they decide to do so. And now would certainly seem to be the opportune time, after their lack of front-line starting pitching depth undermined the Braves in each of the past two postseasons.
Those were one-and-done efforts in which the Braves were eliminated both years in four NLDS games by the rival Philadelphia Phillies, crushing and abrupt exits for a Braves team that won the 2021 World Series.
The Braves exercised a $20 million option on starter Charlie Morton, who turned 40 on Sunday. He’ll return to a rotation led by Spencer Strider, the MLB wins and strikeout leader in 2023, and Fried, who’s been the Braves’ ace for several years and has battled injuries or sickness late in each of the past two seasons that affected him in the playoffs. Fried is entering the final year of his contract before free agency.
The Braves also return Bryce Elder, who made the NL All-Star team in his first full season in 2023 before fading badly in the second half and getting knocked around in the NLDS. They hope to have Ian Anderson (Tommy John surgery) healthy by midseason and have several hard-throwing youngsters who could compete for spots, including their top two prospects, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, their first pick in the 2023 draft.
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But the Braves would prefer to give their young starters more time at Triple A this season rather than have to rush them to the majors as they’ve done with a few in recent years. They can only do that if they have better depth, and not the kind you claim off the scrap heap late in spring training.
Nola, 30, played a big part in the Phillies eliminating the Braves, giving up just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings of two NLDS starts against Atlanta over the past two postseasons, and getting the win in each. He’s 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA in nine career postseason starts, all in the past two years, and the durable right-hander posted a 3.84 ERA in 64 regular-season starts during 2022-2023, with 437 strikeouts and only 74 walks in 398 2/3 innings.
His durability is another big reason the Braves might be more inclined to make a large offer to Nola rather than to push hard to re-sign Fried, who missed more than half of the 2023 season with injuries including a forearm strain and recurring index-finger blister.
Nola, who is only five months older than Fried, has averaged 199 innings per regular season during the past five full MLB seasons and made 32 or more starts in each. Fried, whose first full season was 2019, has only once pitched more than 165 2/3 innings in a regular season. That was in 2022 when he totaled 185 1/3. He pitched 77 2/3 innings in 14 starts in 2023.
MLB Trade Rumors projects Nola could get a six-year contract worth $150 million ($25 million AAV), while some others in the industry believe he could command a deal worth closer to $200 million.
Gray turned 34 last week but is coming off one of the three best seasons of his 11-year career, posting a 2.79 ERA and majors-leading 2.83 FIP in 32 starts for the Minnesota Twins, with 183 strikeouts in 184 innings. Because of age and past health issues — this was just his second time making 30 starts since 2015 — his price is expected to be significantly lower than other top free-agent starters, with MLBTR projecting $90 million over four years.
Grissom, who will turn 23 in January, hit .330 with a .921 OPS in 102 games at Gwinnett in 2023, with a .419 OBP, 48 extra-base hits (eight home runs) and 13 stolen bases in 15 attempts. He struck out only 66 times and has 201 in 1,474 plate appearances during 329 minor-league games since the Braves took Grissom in the 11th round of the 2019 draft out of Hagerty High School outside Orlando.
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Grissom has hit .287 with 15 extra-base hits (five homers) and a .746 OPS in 64 major-league games during stints with the Braves over the past two seasons, and his defense at shortstop has improved but still is not what the team expects from that position. Left field, however, is a position where Grissom’s athleticism might allow him to play serviceable defense now and perhaps considerably better than that with experience.
It won’t be surprising if Grissom is in left field most of the time during winter ball in Puerto Rico, where he’s expected to begin playing in December. Grissom told team officials he just wants to play in the majors, at whatever position they want to put him.
“He’s open to playing anywhere,” Anthopoulos said. “He’s expressed that to us. We want to make sure to continue to get him reps in the infield. That’s something that we’ve talked about, just being able to move him around all over the place to get his bat in the lineup. Look, he had an unbelievable year in Gwinnett. If you look at the last two months, I think it was an 1.100 OPS. So we are now talking about ways to get him into the lineup.”
(Top photo of Vaughn Grissom: Nic Coury / Associated Press)
