It's Tom Brady in the playoffs, so even though the Buccaneers finished the season 8-9 and were the NFC's second-lowest scoring team, the Bucs are more than capable of winning tonight. Brady has dangerous wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on his side, and late in the year when the Bucs needed to win, they turned back to Leonard Fournette as their primary running back. Fournette likes the big stage; "Playoff Lenny" has nine rushing touchdowns in eight career postseason games, and the Bucs had Fournette getting 20 touches a game during their Super Bowl run two years ago.
Despite Dak Prescott's recent sloppy play, the Cowboys finished the regular season with a +10 turnover margin, second best in the league. Micah Parsons leads a pass rush that won't just be hunting Brady but will be looking for the ball, and the Bucs will use the screen game and a bunch of quick passes to try to limit Parsons' effectiveness. The Bucs are used to winning ugly and believe they can sustain long drives, but they want to keep Brady out of third and long situations and will hope their run game can at least keep the Cowboys guessing, even if the pass is going to be their main weapon. The Cowboys finished the regular season tied for third in total sacks and were the No. 2 defense leaguewide by FootballOutsiders.com total defensive DVOA.
Prescott has thrown at least one interception in seven straight games and has thrown 11 interceptions since Week 11. He was especially bad last week in a game that didn't mean much to the Cowboys and might easily be dismissed. But the Cowboys need Prescott to be sharp on the playoff stage, and the Bucs are still dangerous enough to capitalize if the Cowboys commit turnovers early. With the Bucs fully aware that CeeDee Lamb is Prescott's favorite target, who steps up to keep the chains (and the Cowboys) moving? Will it be T.Y. Hilton, Noah Brown or Michael Gallup? Gallup had just nine catches over the last four games, and the Cowboys would love to be able to threaten the Bucs down the field. Lamb led the Cowboys with 107 receptions in the regular season; tight end Dalton Schultz was second with 57.
These teams played in the season opener, and the Bucs won 19-3 in a game most remembered for Prescott suffering a broken thumb in the fourth quarter. But despite the feeling at the time, the Cowboys weren't sunk -- and the Bucs were far from a dominant force in any one area for much of the season. Now, the pressure is turned way up on both teams (and both head coaches). Could this be Brady's last game in a Bucs uniform? Or does the old man have another postseason run coming?
The winner goes to Santa Clara to play the 49ers Sunday night.
