The ones I love: Joey Ortiz, Will Benson and my 2023 fantasy baseball draft obsessions

I was all alone.

Or at least, that’s how it felt.

I knew I wasn’t, of course, as I had great friends, my family, my dog (what’s up, Jill), and others there for me.

Last year at this time, I was living in a tiny studio apartment in Downtown Cleveland — one of the more underappreciated cities in the country. Well, except when it snows, because then it’s Hell on Earth.

But I moved there, on my own, without knowing anyone. It was following my divorce with my long-time partner of more than a decade.

Suddenly, it was just me.

Could I do it? Could I afford it? Was I destined for a smaller city like Cleveland?

I didn’t have these answers, but I knew that I had to tackle it head-on.

See, when I moved, I researched cities all over the country, trying to find out where I wanted to start fresh.

The final three were Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Milwaukee.

Three cold-ass places, but that was fine.

When people would reach out to see how I was doing in Cleveland and how I was adjusting to the bachelor lifestyle, I would smile and say that it was going fine and I was enjoying the freedom.

I had the typical post-breakup phase in my life and on Twitter where I was looking forward to the dating (Hi, Penelope!) and relying just on myself.

But the truth was, I was depressed. I was very “woe is me,” to a point that it was better that I was on my own, because I would be one hell of a drag to be around.

But I also had the wherewithal to have three other priorities for my move.

I needed Central AC
I needed an in-unit washer and dryer
I needed baseball

Because yes, this is a fantasy baseball column, and while I love you all, you aren’t my therapist.

Say what you want about Cleveland, but it had all of these. As did Milwaukee. Same with Minneapolis.

If nothing else, at that moment in my life, I knew I had baseball, and I was going to do everything in my power to enjoy the hell out of the season.

I booked a trip to Toronto for Opening Day — the first Opening Day that Toronto experienced since 2019 due to the pandemic. It was a high-scoring game against the Rangers, one that saw the Blue Jays put together one hell of a come-from-behind effort.

Win or lose — it never mattered to me. I was feeling like myself again, and I wanted more of it.

I was obsessed with the feeling, and I was obsessed with baseball once again.

I booked a trip up to Chicago for a wrestling event, and while I was up there — being that it was so close to Milwaukee — I met up with my friend and FSWA finalist Jordan White to take in a Brewers games before taking in a White Sox game with my friend and Razzball writer Keelin Billue on the following day.

It was so nice, I did it twice, as I went up to Milwaukee for another game with Jordan.

I also got to go to Detroit, Toronto (twice more), Philadelphia, and multiple, multiple Cleveland games.

2022 was the year of baseball for me.

It was the year of falling into a routine by walking my dog after work, coming home, cooking dinner, and putting on MLB.TV to the Blue Jays on my TV and to random games on my computer.

It didn’t matter to me if my fantasy teams sucked. It didn’t matter to me that Akil Baddoo — the poster player for this column last year – was an absolute bust.

I got to write about baseball. I got to watch baseball. I got to talk about baseball.

This column is my favorite piece to write each and every year. It’s the topic that got me hired by The Athletic, and it’s the one that I like to think is my best work each year. The obsessions reference is a fantasy trope at this point, and it’s a cute SEO term that people search for.

But sometimes, it means more than that.

It means searching FanGraphs and Baseball Savant trying to find a little tweak a player has to make to get on the fantasy radar.

It’s scouring MILB.com to find that unheralded prospect who only needs 13 things to fall his way to have a chance to get the call (Hi, Ryan Noda!).

It’s wondering why the hell this pitcher with plus-stuff is going so late in drafts, and questioning whether you’re the only one who sees it?

It’s wondering what the Orioles are thinking by keeping Joey Ortiz out of the lineup for Jorge Mateo.

It’s an obsession. It’s a healthy obsession. And sometimes, it’s a fucking escape.

While it was me who got myself through that point in my life, I have to give the assist to MLB for helping me complete that 6-4-3 double-play.

And now, the obsessions.

Before we get to this year’s obsessions, let’s take a look at who I was dropping my jaw for last year in this column.

The Good:

The Bad:

The Fine:

The Ugly:

So as you can see, not every call is going to work out, but that’s kind of the exercise with the obsessions. It’s not players who are obvious studs, but players who I find myself gravitating toward to varying levels of degrees and, well, varying levels of league sizes who could become fantasy mainstays. They are a tweak or two — or a path or two away to playing time — from being players to contribute.

The goods were obviously good, but there were no two players who burnt me last year more than Akil Baddoo and Kevin Smith.

I was all-in on both in 10-, 12-, and 15-team leagues. The thought process was sound, but I didn’t weigh the risks involved with them nearly as much as I should have.

Andrés Muñoz, Jose Miranda, and Steven Kwan made up for them, and someone like Seiya Suzuki had an injury stand in his way, but I’m in on him again (despite the oblique injury). Maybe it’s me? Am I like you, Taylor? Am I the problem? Let’s find out…

This year’s obsessions

Joey Ortiz (SS – BAL) NFBC ADP: 711

Ortiz is someone who I referenced earlier in this column, and he’s actually someone who I’m carrying over from when we released our The Athletic Fantasy Baseball Magazine (in stores now!) a few months ago.

I’m doubling down on Ortiz, mainly because he has no cost and nothing but upside given the situation.

Before we dive into Ortiz (we will, I promise), we need to talk about the situation he’s in.

For Ortiz to do what I think he can do, it’s essentially banking on Jorge Mateo struggling and losing his job. The Athletic’s Dan Connolly believes that Mateo has two months to prove himself before getting replaced.

But wait, why? He stole 35 bases last year!

That’s the difference between real life and fantasy. While Mateo is fast and in the 97% percentile in outs above average defensively, he is a terrible, terrible hitter.

His quality of contact is low, coming in at the 13% percentile in HardHit%, and his Swing% being well above league average with his well below league average Zone Contact, Chase%, Chase Contact, and Whiff% are not ideal.

Aside from August, where Mateo hit .277 (good!), he failed to hit over .250 in any other month (bad!).

Projection models seem to feel the same about him, too, as THE BAT, ATC, and Steamer all have him for fewer than 400 plate appearances this year.

Mateo will not keep this job, which is why I like Ortiz to take over.

While Mateo is good defensively and has a good arm, do you know who else is? Ortiz. Kind of obvious given the paragraph structure, no?

Unlike Mateo, Ortiz is actually good with the bat, too. In Bowie and Norfolk last season, Ortiz slashed .308/.369/.511 with 19 home runs, 176 runs+RBIs, and eight steals in 600 plate appearances. And he did that with a 15.5 K% and an 8.2 BB%.

What’s important to note for Ortiz with those numbers is that he started extremely slow, dealing with an arm injury. In his final 70 games, he slashed .350/.413/.610, and the bat-to-ball ability is what makes him stand out as he has an absurdly low strikeout rate.

Ortiz’s zone contact rate hovered just under 90% last season. His ability to repeat his moves and seemingly always be on time helps him consistently get to all different pitch types and locations. He had an OPS above .800 against non-fastballs.
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) March 16, 2023

But this isn’t a Luis Arráez-type player. While the power profile doesn’t stand out, he did hit 19 home runs in 2022 and has above average exit velo, too.

It’s encouraging seeing Ortiz carry over his college profile from New Mexico State, but everyone hits at New Mexico State. Remember, that was the knock on Nick Gonzales coming out of the draft a few years ago, and now he’s being compared to Keston Hiura.

The other concern with investing in Ortiz is the breakout performance not only last year by Jordan Westburg, but in spring, too — Westburg is hitting well over .300 in spring, and he’s doing it while hitting balls consistently over 101 mph.

Given the steps in development the Orioles have taken, and how they are a trendy fringe playoff team, seeing them promote Westburg over Ortiz wouldn’t be surprising, but it would cause a wrinkle in the obsession pick with Ortiz.

Both will start every day in Triple-A, and if Mateo doesn’t turn things around by June, one should get the call and help fantasy managers in the second half of the season.

Here’s hoping it’s Ortiz and not Westburg.

Alex Cobb (SP – SFG) NFBC ADP: 224

OK, were you really expecting a column about obsessions that didn’t feature Cobb? Across 14 leagues, I have exposure to Cobb in 10 of them, and in the four that I don’t, I’m going to try to get him.

May was a rough month for Cobb last year, as he allowed 13 combined earned runs in back-to-back starts. But from then on, it was smooth sailing; he only had three starts for the rest of the year where he allowed more than three earned runs.

As the season progressed, Cobb started utilizing his curveball more, which became a pitch he used to generate whiffs (34.1 Whiff%). He didn’t allow a home run after May.

On 371 curves on the year, Cobb allowed just two home runs on the pitch.

Two.

Among all starters last year, Cobb had the 18th-highest vertical movement on his curve compared to the league at plus-4.1 inches of vertical movement.

What’s more, since joining the Giants, Cobb has ditched his 4-seamer in favor of a heavier dosage of splitters and sinkers.

And like many before him — and Sean Manaea this spring — we’ve seen his velocity go up on his pitches since joining the Giants, who are becoming a pitching hotbed.

What I often say when it comes to Cobb — who I did place an NL Cy Young bet on at +15000 — is that I could see a Robbie Ray 2021-type season from him.

Even last year, while the numbers were good but not blow-you-away good, his 2.80 FIP was 8th among pitchers with 140 innings thrown, ahead of names Sandy Alcántara, Zack Wheeler, Shane Bieber, and Brandon Woodruff.

Need more?

Cobb was also top 20 in CSW% last season, one of my go-to metrics (shoutout friend of The Athletic Alex Fast) for evaluating pitchers.

Not convinced yet?

What about his pitching+ numbers, including his PPERA that has him above Jeffrey Springs, Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray, Dustin May, Max Fried, Alek Manoah, as well as his other pitching+ metrics?

Oh, and the numbers he put up last year came with the fifth-highest BABIP in baseball. Sure, the elimination of the shift could come into play, but San Francisco was in the bottom-half of the league in total shifts in 2022, so I’m banking more on positive regression for Cobb with his BABIP in similar fashion to Kevin Gausman – the AL Cy Young this year, by the way – in Toronto.

Kyle Bradish (SP – BAL) NFBC ADP: 298

Do you know who likes Kyle Bradish this year? Everyone, seemingly. But since he’s only going No. 298 overall, we can still discuss him in this space.

What we like about Bradish – besides the suppressed draft price due to him being more Kyle Badish in 2022 – are the changes that we saw in spring training.

Yes, I know. Spring Training. Blah blah blah.

But some stuff matters, and it especially matters for someone like Bradish.

Per Eno’s model, Bradish’s Spring Stuff+ came in at 115.3, which is 15th among qualified starting pitchers. For reference, it’s ahead of Edward Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Luis Severino, Kodai Senga, and Zac Gallen.

What I’ve enjoyed tracking with Bradish this spring is the increased velo and spin on his pitches.

While Bradish threw his fastball 44.5 percent of the time, you can see in the image below how often it lived in the heart of the zone.

When the pitch is living in the heart of the zone, it’s going to generate a ton of swings by the opposition.

And, well, Bradish wasn’t missing any bats in the heart of the zone.

In fact, his fastball was so bad (audience participation time – “How bad was it?”) that it had the fourth-lowest run value, ahead of only Madison Bumgarner, Josiah Gray, and Kris Bubic. Yes, it was even worse than José Berríos’ was.

A lot of it had to do with just how flat it was, as its -7.5H” compared to league average was only better than Brad Keller’s last year.

Wow, for a guy that I like, I’m s—-ing on him a ton.

It’s because of the whole package and that little tweak we spoke about at the top of this article.

With the added movement that he’s shown this spring, as well as the velo gain, he should miss more bats in turn – especially with his fastball to pair with his already-impressive slider.

Carrying over the spring improvements with his stuff+ should allow Bradish to take advantage of his pitcher-friendly venue and flirt with being a top 50 fantasy pitcher.

Seby Zavala (C – CHW) NFBC ADP: 636

Wait, what? Trust me, I get it. I feel like I’m setting myself up to look like an idiot, too, but the heart wants what it wants (call me, Anna).

Like Ortiz, this has to do with who is ahead of him just as much as it has to do with the player himself.

Zavala locked up the backup catcher gig in the South Side, and ahead of him is the OBP artist formerly known as Yasmani Grandal. And finally, when our iPhone autocorrects his name to Yasmani Grandad, it may have a point.

I don’t want to panic and say that Grandal can’t rebound … but he’s a 34-year-old catcher, who has played fewer than 100 games over the last two years. What’s more, he posted a 12 BB% (bad by his measures) last year with a .301 OBP, .067 ISO, and 68 wRC+.

There were few players who had at least 350 plate appearances who had a worse wRC+ than Grandal. And well, it’s not the company you want to keep.

For someone who has made a living being an OBP staple, seeing a high Chase% and low Chase Contact% hurts, and the increased GB% at his age gives me concern, too.

Enter Zavala, who has had a few brief stints in the big leagues over the last few years.

A couple of things that I like about Zavala is that he not only hits the ball hard, but he does so to all areas of the field.

In the 321 plate appearance that we’ve seen from Zavala, he has a 38.2 Pull%, 29.2 Straight%, and 32.6 Oppo%, with a 9 Barrel% and 22.7 average launch angle.

While his two homers came off of Nick Gordon (really) and Alex Lange last season, he hit two off of Triston McKenzie, one off of Andrew Heaney, and one off of Luis Patiño in 2021.

Now, we can’t highlight the positives – such as his elite pitch framing – without pointing out the obvious flaw, which is the high strikeout rate.

Across his career – 321 plate appearances – Zavala has a 35.5 K%. And it’s not just an issue against big-league pitching, either, as he’s been at 35%, 41.9%, and 35.5K% across his last three Triple-A seasons.

That’s … not great. And the walk rate is fine, but even if it comes in at 9 percent, it doesn’t balance out quite as much.

This is all about Zavala taking over the starting role from Grandal, giving us that much-desired opportunity that we want in fantasy.

He’s played a decent amount this spring, and while the .293/.375/.732 slash line with five home runs is what I’m looking and hoping for, the main thing that I’m happy with is the 26 K%.

If he can just live in that area, he’s going to give us that value in a two-catcher league.

Shallow-League Obsessions

Nick Castellanos (OF – PHI) NFBC ADP: 116

Castellanos is one of the easier bounce-back calls for me this year, and I’ve been targeting him in about half of my drafts. He struggled in his first season in Philadelphia. I won’t argue that. I will, however, argue the why.

It’s a small sample, but he had a .307 AVG/.374 OBP/.851 OPS/89.6EV/43 HardHit% pre-May 5. Why is May 5 an important day? Well, that was the day that he was hit on the wrist – the same wrist he had a microfracture in 2021.

From May 6 on, he had a .254AVG/.288 OBP/.653 OPS/87 EV/33 HardHit%. Correlation? Maybe!

I’m excited for a fully healthy season – with a change in his swing with Kevin Long – for Castellanos in Philly.

Lars Nootbaar (OF – STL) NFBC ADP: 164

This was a lot more fun in the offseason when not as many people were in on him. Now, if he goes any higher than 150, it’s going to be hard to recoup any value on him.

Still, I like the profile of Nootbaar, and the manageable K% paired with the good BB% and fantastic quality of contact metrics makes him a pretty safe wide-awake sleeper.

Masataka Yoshida (OF – BOS) NFBC ADP: 176

Yeah, Gunnar Henderson is cool. But have you ever watched Yoshida play baseball? He’s my favorite for AL Rookie of the Year.

There are four players projected for a sub-13K% and above a 10 BB% this season by THE BAT:

It’s rarified air, and 20 home runs with 150 Runs+RBIs isn’t out of the question.

Ross Stripling (SP/RP – SFG) NFBC ADP: 279

Do you like boring pitchers? Do you like a good home park? Look no further than Stripling, who has been one of the more underrated pitchers of the last five years in Toronto and Los Angeles. Now, he has a rotation spot locked up in San Francisco and should provide good SP4-5 numbers with a super high floor. When Drowning Pool sang “Let the Bodies Hit the Floor,” it was Stripling’s floor they were talking about.

Jesse Winker (OF – MIL) NFBC ADP: 239

He’s healthy. He’s seemingly happy. He’s in a new ballpark. He walks a lot and doesn’t strike out a ton. He had a career-low .251 BABIP. It’s kind of hard for me to see Winker not bouncing-back to OF3 levels at the very least.

Oscar Colas (OF – CHI) NFBC ADP: 255

He made the opening-day lineup, which was the big thing we were waiting on. Still, his ADP was 255, so people are paying attention.

The White Sox gave him every look in spring, as his 63 spring plate appearances were tied with Jordan Walker for the second-most of any player. He slashed .270/.281/.444 with three home runs, but the positive I look at is that he only had nine strikeouts.

He’s not going to walk, so he’s going to be a drain in OBP leagues. But for traditional 5×5 leagues, he’s a fantastic target to go after.

Hayden Wesneski (SP – CHC) NFBC ADP: 274

Here’s another wide-awake sleeper whose ADP doesn’t reflect the excitement level around him or the fact that he made the Cubs’ rotation to start the season.

If you’re looking for the reason people are so excited, check out his sweeper/slider.

49 Seconds of Hayden Wesneski Sliders/Sweepers.
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 24, 2023

Post-300 ADP Obsessions

Bailey Ober (SP – MIN) NFBC ADP: 330

Ober didn’t make the Twins’ rotation out of camp, but I’m not worried that I wasted a pick on him. In fact, he shouldn’t have made it. But he has Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Pablo López, Kenta Maeda, and Joe Ryan ahead of him in the pecking order.

That’s also known as one older guy off of a Tommy John surgery, two guys with bad shoulders, and Gray, who hasn’t topped 175 innings since 2015.

He’ll get his shot.

Alex Kirilloff (OF – MIN) NFBC ADP: 369

I don’t know what to tell you. I won’t quit Kirilloff, and I know he’s starting the season on the injured list, but that just makes him easier to acquire. His wrist seems to be in a good spot, and at the bottomed-out price of 369, there’s literally no downside to having as many shares as you want.

Spencer Steer (3B – CIN) NFBC ADP: 382

I scream about opportunity at every chance, and Steer has that in Cincinnati. There’s no competition waiting for him at the big-league level, and it’ll be his job until Christian Encarnacion-Strand and/or Elly De La Cruz take it from him.

With the Reds going nowhere, I don’t really see that being a factor until possibly September.

You could take Josh Jung (whom I like) at pick No. 219, or you could just wait and take Steer for a similar production a hell of a lot later.

Alek Thomas (OF – ARI) NFBC ADP: 377

Thomas is in a weird spot, as Corbin Carroll is getting all of the (deserving) praise and attention. But it’s worth remembering that Thomas was a top prospect in his own right, but he struggled and was sent down after debuting last year.

That, to me, sounds like a perfect post-hype player instead of a guy with a 55FV to write off after 400 plate appearances.

I could see him going 10/10 with a .280 average, which would be nice modest gains in his second season.

Graham Ashcraft (SP – CIN) NFBC ADP: 389

Ashcraft is another popular sleeper, but he still was hovering around 400 in ADP.

Ashcraft was 35th in Stuff+ last season, sitting at 97 on his cutter and sinker. He allowed a lot of hard contact – which isn’t great for his home ballpark – but I’m trusting the stuff and the next step in his development to pair with Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo as three must-roster Reds’ pitchers.

Post-400 ADP Obsessions

Kyle Stowers (OF – BAL) NFBC ADP: 477

I love opportunity, and Stowers has that in Baltimore. He’s a big strikeout guy, but there’s untapped power potential for a left-handed hitting outfielder in Baltimore. Cheap power is my drug of choice.

Will Benson (OF – CIN) NFBC ADP: 470

The Reds’ outfield situation is murky, with Benson, Nick Senzel (I believe, dammit), T.J. Friedl, Wil Myers, and Jake Fraley offer upside to varying degrees.

Much has been made about the stolen base attempts going up in spring, and Benson was a big reason for that, as he stole six of the seven bases he made attempts on.

What’s more – while he didn’t walk, at all – he did hit .327 in his spring audition, which helps his case for regular playing time.

He has elite speed, and with the ballpark he’s in, it could help his power play up to a respectable level.

Kerry Carpenter (OF – DET) NFBC ADP: 444

I went to go see Akron play last year with my dog. We had a great time, and it’s where I was really introduced to Carpenter with the visiting Erie Seawolves.

Carpenter had 36 home runs across three levels last year with a 126 wRC+. He’s free, and there’s nothing but upside there.

Have I mentioned I like cheap power?

Griffin Jax (RP – MIN) NFBC ADP: 597

Jhoan Duran is the elite pitcher, but I’m going to continue going down swinging like the batters he faces that he won’t be the closer if/when Jorge López loses the job. I think he stays in a high-leverage role, leaving Jax as the main guy to take over the traditional ninth-inning role in Minnesota.

Jax has the elite pitch (slider) that you want for a closer to have, and he’s the guy I’m riding with as my late closer-in-waiting this season.

Also, graphic design is a passion of mine.

Edouard Julien (2B – MIN) NFBC ADP: 588

Last but not least, we have to get a prospect in here. But Julien is more than a prospect – he’s a prospect in waiting for a full-time gig.

I truly, madly, do (shoutout Savage Garden) like the Twins this year, but I do have some questions about their infield. There’s already an injury to Jorge Polanco. There are concerns (always) about Carlos Correa. Joey Gallo is starting at first base.

It’s not hard to find a way to get Julien’s bat into the lineup.

He slashed .300/.441/.490 with 17 home runs, 19 steals, and 144 Runs+RBIs last season in Double-A. That came with a – get this – 19.3 BB% at Double-A. Oh, that’s after he posted a 21.9 BB% at two levels in 2021.

The on-base skills are elite, and while being without a true defensive position (second base, left field, or designated hitter seem most likely) can limit him, I have no doubt about his ability to contribute the day he gets called up.

Let’s hope it’s in the not-too-distant future.

(Top photo: John E. Moore III/Getty Images)