Where does the time go when you’re having fun?
The NHL’s regular season passed the quarter mark this week, and what a fascinating start to the year it’s been.
Lots of goals — scoring is at its highest rate in 27 years. Lots of comebacks — lead changes are at the second highest per game rate since the late 1980s. And no shortage of surprises, both good and bad, amid all that chaos.
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Based on the questions submitted for my first mailbag since joining The Athletic, it seems like a lot of you are riding the roller-coaster.
So here goes: Everything you wanted to know about contracts, trades, unsigned players, your favorite team’s fortunes and what I ate during the Global Series games in Stockholm.
Enjoy!
(Note: Some questions are edited lightly for length and clarity.)
What kind of contract is Patrick Kane likely going to be signing? Is he looking for another payday or is he open to playing with a contender on a cheap contract? — Joshua B.
By now we know that Kane signed a one-year deal with Detroit worth a prorated $2.75 million on Tuesday. That nets out to a little more than $2 million in actual salary he’ll be paid this season before deductions for taxes, escrow and agent’s fees.
But there’s an interesting thought experiment about what his next contract might look like. Much of that will be dependent on how well Kane performs in his return from hip resurfacing surgery, of course, and there hasn’t previously been an NHLer who thrived after that procedure. Still, despite the unknowns, it’s reasonable to believe that his next deal will actually pay him more than this one, for a couple of reasons:
1. Kane is eligible to sign a 35-and-over contract next time around that includes performance bonuses, which can be beneficial to teams because those bonuses are eligible to be pushed back a year for accounting purposes against the salary cap.
2. The list of teams bidding for his services will likely be more robust next July 1 than it was in this circumstance where he’s being grafted onto a roster after 20 games.
3. The salary cap ceiling itself is expected to rise to nearly $88 million next season, which means there’ll be more money in the system for everyone to spend on players
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Of course, that’s all of little consequence to Kane now. If he takes care of his own business and plays at a higher level for the Red Wings than we saw from him the past year or two, the money will surely follow.
NEW: Column on the Red Wings signing Patrick Kane, and whether he can be the X-factor as they look to end a seven-year playoff drought:
— Max Bultman (@m_bultman) November 28, 2023
I think people are getting hung up on the wrong Swedish superstar’s contract negotiation. What does it take for the Canucks to lock Elias Pettersson up? — John P.
The only reason we’re a little less hung up on Pettersson’s contract status than William Nylander’s is because Pettersson has one more RFA year remaining when his current deal expires.
He’s not heading to the open market if a new deal isn’t done by July 1.
But while that one additional year of team control brings with it a touch more comfort for Vancouver’s front office than the Leafs currently have with Nylander, it also buys Pettersson the ability to wait things out and slow play negotiations amid a career season.
At worst, he’s going to play for $8.82 million next year — the value of his qualifying offer. He also owns arbitration rights and could exercise those next summer to make even more coming off another 100-point campaign.
The Canucks are highly incentivized to get him signed long-term ASAP: Imagine what Pettersson would be worth as an unrestricted free agent on the open market in 2025 when the salary cap is expected to surge beyond $90 million.
The player has the hammer here. One way or another, he’s going to be among the top paid in the sport when all is said and done.
When will Craig Conroy start seriously listening to offers on his upcoming UFAs? If the Flames hang around a wild-card spot, is it enough to keep everyone to make sure they get in and have a few extra playoff dates but risk losing players for nothing in the offseason? — Bob H.
Well, he’s already listening.
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There’s plenty of interest in the players Calgary is expected to move by the March 8 trade deadline, which is why we currently have Flames occupying the top four spots (!) on our Big Board.
The biggest task facing Conroy and his staff is determining how best to maximize their assets. Prices tend to go higher when you’ve got multiple bidders and an approaching deadline, but there’s also the risk of seeing a player get injured the longer you wait. It’s a fine balance.
Barring an unforeseen run of prosperity, there’s nothing to suggest that potential playoff dates will factor into the plans here at all. The Flames don’t want to let a player walk away for nothing in free agency the way Johnny Gaudreau did two summers ago.
NHL trade board 2023-24: The latest on all the top targets from Chris Johnston – The Athletic
@reporterchris’s first iteration of his ever-changing trade board
— Michael Russo (@RussoHockey) November 29, 2023
What defenseman do you think the Leafs are most likely to acquire? And what do you think they will give up in the process? — Andrew C.
It’s not difficult to connect the dots to Calgary, where current Leafs general manager Brad Treliving built a Flames blue line now featuring some attractive trade targets.
Noah Hanifin probably doesn’t make sense for Toronto given where his next contract is expected to land — and the Leafs also aren’t believed to be included among the eight teams on Hanifin’s limited no-trade list — but Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov certainly hold some appeal.
With John Klingberg’s season likely over because of a hip injury, perhaps there’s a world where the Leafs could land both of those players using the extra long-term-injured-reserve space they’ll gain if he elects for surgery.
Other defensemen worth keeping an eye on are Ilya Lyubushkin (Anaheim) and Sean Walker (Philadelphia). Others will hit the market over time as more teams shift into selling mode.
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As for what we’d expect Toronto to spend on acquisitions, it’s worth noting that they own nine picks in the upcoming draft, including a first-rounder.
I have watched a lot of the Oilers this year, and my question is can they turn it around? — Louis B.
They already appear to be turning it around, to me. A 12-point outburst from Connor McDavid during a three-game winning streak quickly changes the outlook, doesn’t it?
Now, all is not fixed overnight.
The Oilers are still under pressure to solidify their goaltending, and they’ve got a defense corps that probably needs shoring up. But if they can keep banking points in the short term, they can buy some time for management to make those tweaks.
It certainly helps that a middle-heavy Western Conference didn’t run away from them during their disastrous start.
NHL season predictions 2.0: Revised picks for Stanley Cup, playoff field, awards and more ⤵️
— The Athletic NHL (@TheAthleticNHL) November 11, 2023
With Shane Pinto in mind, any idea how the restricted-free-agent eligibility signing deadline and cap implications will be applied for the Senators? I believe he needs to sign before Dec. 1 in order to play this season. The Senators do not have sufficient cap space. And he’s suspended through mid-January. — Ken M.
The Dec. 1 deadline doesn’t apply to Pinto because he’s classified as a 10.2(c) player. What that means is he hasn’t accrued the necessary number of professional seasons needed to be considered a Group 2 RFA, which makes him ineligible to sign an offer sheet with another team.
As a result, the Senators have no reason to sign him to a contract before his suspension is finished being served on Jan. 21.
They’ve basically got until that point to create the cap space needed to fit Pinto’s next contract onto their active roster.
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As a longtime Rangers fan … is this the year? — Mark A.
You know what they say: Hope springs eternal.
And the Rangers are off to a fabulous start.
There’s nothing about the makeup or performance of that team that currently suggests it isn’t their year. Enjoy the ride.
Does the NHL really think that a “World Cup” tournament with only four countries would be an enjoyable experience for anyone involved? An entire section of world-class players purposefully left out or choosing not to play, players who do participate would probably treat it with less seriousness than an exhibition game, and fans are left once again without a real best-on-best. What is the NHL’s logic behind that ridiculous thought? — Mike V.
Look, it’s not perfect. The NHL and NHLPA understand that.
But after a nuclear winter without best-on-best hockey for nearly a decade, the 2025 Four Nations event being contemplated could at least whet some appetites by bringing together the top players from the United States, Canada, Sweden and Finland.
(There remains some discussion about finding ways to incorporate the best players from other nations as well, but it’s not yet clear exactly how that would work.)
Either way, it represents a start. The first step in the right direction for international play.
It will be a failure if 10 years from now the NHL hasn’t gotten to a place where its players are competing in either the Olympics or a true best-on-best World Cup every second year, but I’ll personally welcome the chance to see Crosby, McDavid and MacKinnon face Kane, Matthews and Tkachuk(s) in their national team sweaters 14 months from now, even if the event ends up feeling a little like an exhibition.
GO DEEPER
Johnston: NHL making progress toward 2024 draft at Las Vegas' Sphere, plus latest on World Cup, more
With everything that has happened with the 2018 Canadian WJC team, is there any idea of when there will be closure on the issue? — Joshua B.
The short answer here is no.
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I had sources telling me in the summer that some kind of resolution was imminent. Now it’s almost December. The wheels of justice grind slowly.
All I can tell you with certainty is that the NHL is still working through its investigation and engaging in discussions with the NHLPA on the matter. Beyond that, an independent adjudicative panel recently found that some members of the team were in violation of Hockey Canada’s code of conduct, but those findings are now subject to an appeal.
I haven’t heard much about Phil Kessel. Is his intention to play this year? And if so what timeline should we expect for him? — Kurtis H.
Kessel would still love to return to the NHL this season.
Remember how his former Twitter profile once read “Nice guy, tries hard, loves the game”?
The three-time Stanley Cup champion and active NHL Ironman has been patient this fall. He’s staying in shape and skating back home in Arizona, recently telling my colleague Pierre LeBrun: “I feel like I can help and contribute.”
A few teams have kept in touch with Kessel’s agent on his availability. There was even a point in October when it looked like a deal might come together. It obviously hasn’t happened yet, but that doesn’t mean it won’t.
Phil Kessel is ready and eager to return, will a team make an offer? I chatted with the veteran winger this week. Plus, what rival coaches have to say on the surprising Canucks. My latest for @TheAthletic ⤵️
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) November 2, 2023
Newbie here. Getting into the NHL. Attended a few Sharks games in the last year, mostly seeing other teams doing well. Any advice? — Chingon M.
Welcome aboard, newbie, we’re glad you’ve chosen the best game on ice.
You’ve actually found the Sharks at the perfect time. Things are only going to go up from here. In the NHL, teams typically go through periods where they’re winning for a prolonged span before enduring a losing cycle where they need to rebuild with a younger generation of core players.
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That’s where the Sharks are today. They’re an organization with a proud history that should eventually rebound. It’s going to take time and patience, but fans who stay with them through the journey can expect to reap some rewards when the pendulum swings back in San Jose’s favor.
What are your top five destinations you would want to go to for a run? — David B.
You’ve got to love where you live, so a run along Toronto’s waterfront trail will always be at the top of my list.
The Central Park loop in New York City is fantastic. The Seawall in Vancouver is always a highlight. The Tiergarten Park in Berlin gave me a memorable 15-kilometer jaunt last summer. And I never miss the chance to run up (and down) Mount Royal when visiting Montreal.
What was the best meal you ate in Stockholm? What was the most adventurous? — Alexander H.
With NHL games to cover four of the six nights I spent in Sweden, there wasn’t as much quality eating time as I would have liked there during my recent visit.
I had an excellent dinner at “Nytorget 6” with colleagues. I enjoyed a burger from Mika Zibanejad’s “Brödernas” chain. The pizza slices at “800 Grader” were outrageously good … like 12-out-10, I’d-consider-flying-back-across-the-ocean-just-to-have-another-bite-of-that-crust level of good.
As for adventurous? I’m not sure if this qualifies but I was pressed for time one day and saw a bunch of people eating hot dogs inside a Pressbyrån by the central station so I decided to give one a try to satisfy a hunger pang.
I didn’t regret that decision!
Yum.
(Top photo of Nikita Zadorov: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
