How weird is this Vikings season?
Well, they won the NFC North and sit at 12-4 but have a point differential (-19) that’s worse than both the 8-8 Lions (+22) and 8-8 Packers (+3).
These numbers portray 16 games of anxiety-filled highs and gut-wrenching lows, the latter of which they experienced Sunday. The Packers stuck it to the Vikings in every phase of the game. Each warranted exploration, however, so I reviewed the all-22 film, perused the advanced metrics and spoke with players and coaches about Sunday’s setback.
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A couple of weeks ago, Justin Jefferson was asked to describe the physical nature with which opponents were playing him. He compared his situation to Michael Jordan going up against the Detroit Pistons in the 1990 NBA playoffs.
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“They try to take out the best player,” Jefferson told reporters. “They try to (dish out) as much physical abuse as they can.”
The receiver was talking then about a couple of big hits. Jets safety Jordan Whitehead speared him after a catch one week. Colts cornerback Stephon Gilmore angled his helmet into Jefferson the next. These were one-off shots rather than game-long strategies, though, and Jefferson still stacked catches and yards on those opponents.
The Pistons comparison, though, is apt for the one game plan that has slowed down Jefferson this season: intense jamming at the line of scrimmage and hand-grabbing downfield in an attempt to frustrate a player with near-limitless talent.
Recall the Week 2 matchup in Philadelphia. On the Vikings’ first drive that night, Jefferson lined up wide on the left side of the field. He released toward the sideline with cornerback Darius Slay, who was hitched to his hip on the inside.
Moving full speed, Jefferson decelerated and returned for a comeback route. Slay tugged at Jefferson with his left arm. Jefferson couldn’t secure the catch. Afterward, he rightfully pleaded to the referee for a holding call. That it did not arrive seemed to frustrate the third-year receiver, who finished that night with six catches for 48 yards.
The Lions’ approach was different the next week. Cornerback Jeff Okudah pressed Jefferson and jammed him at the line of scrimmage, knowing he would have safety help over the top.
That afternoon, on the first drive, Jefferson could not corral a pass that sailed above his head. Following the incompletion, Okudah bodied Jefferson. Vikings staffers wanted a flag, but it was not called. Jefferson finished the day with three catches for 14 yards.
First-year head coach and offensive play caller Kevin O’Connell spent considerable time after that win over the Lions identifying ways his team could counteract different coverages and approaches to get Jefferson open more often.
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New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattimore tried the physical strategy in Week 4. It did not work. Jefferson had 10 catches for 147 yards — and a rushing touchdown — in the win in London over the Saints.
.@JJettas2 gives us the lead!!!
📺: @NFLNetwork
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 2, 2022
Similarly, Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard attempted to impose his will two weeks later. Jefferson remained a problem to the tune of six catches and 107 yards.
Then Sunday happened. On the Vikings’ second offensive play from scrimmage, Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander powerfully jammed Jefferson as he engaged for a block on a run.
Alexander followed the early physicality up with a handsy play down the sideline that culminated in a pass breakup and a Griddy dance thereafter.
Jaire Alexander hitting the Griddy after defending Justin Jefferson 😂
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) January 1, 2023
“I thought it was a taunting call,” Jefferson said after the game. “But it is what it is. He does stuff like that to try to get in my head.”
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Now, Alexander’s physical and grabby style didn’t singularly derail the Vikings offense. Early on, wide receiver Adam Thielen failed to separate on a key third down. Tight end T.J. Hockenson also slipped and dropped two passes, including a deep ball that could have resulted in a massive chunk play.
Additionally, center Austin Schlottmann exited the game with a fractured fibula, giving way to Chris Reed, who is normally a guard. Then, on a fourth-and-3 try in Packers territory, quarterback Kirk Cousins hurled a pass to Hockenson over the middle. The tight end couldn’t separate from lanky cornerback Rasul Douglas, and the ball was intercepted and returned for a touchdown.
“If you watch it,” Cousins said, “you’ll see that Justin (Jefferson) is my next progression, and he ends up coming open. But I just felt the void with T.J. and wanted to work that voided area. Obviously, it’s deflected, it lands in their arms and they return it for a touchdown.”
Several other themes presented themselves on film and via advanced metrics. First, the Vikings (again) struggled to run the ball effectively. They rank 24th in the NFL this season in success rate on the ground, which appears to be mostly a byproduct of issues on the offensive line.
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Only three teams are averaging fewer yards before contact per run than the Vikings, and each has been plagued by offensive line concerns (Chargers, Titans and Texans).
The Vikings also have the highest percentage of runs that go for zero or negative yardage (24.7 percent) in the NFL.
“The moral of the story is we’ve got to find a way to get our running game going,” O’Connell said Monday, “regardless of who is in there or who is blocking on the edge. The scheme just needs to be sound, and we’ve got to be able to get hats on hats and get movement and try to give Dalvin (Cook) and Alexander (Mattison) space to get open early in football games.”
Problems with the pass blocking persisted as well, affecting Cousins’ decision-making. At times, it seemed as if Cousins anticipated collapsing pockets, shying away from downfield shots and checking the ball down.
These issues, in their totality, left Jefferson with his worst performance of the season: one reception for 15 yards. Speaking Monday, O’Connell said he identified about seven or eight opportunities that could have increased Jefferson’s impact had they been converted.
“But for sure, there are things looking at it schematically that I could’ve done a heck of a lot better job of, putting our offense in better situations across the board,” O’Connell said.
This current situation is similar to the aftermath of the Eagles and Lions games. Defenses swung boldly at the Vikings, devoted to taking away Jefferson’s production. The Vikings resisted those swings. The theme, it appears, is applied aggressiveness early in the game.
The fix may feature more motion to free up Jefferson off the line of scrimmage. Stacked receiver looks could also help. In the playoffs, however, the Vikings will likely face opponents with cornerbacks willing to roll up their sleeves and get dirty.
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Ultimately, the answer may lie in how Jordan and those Chicago Bulls counterpunched the Pistons.
As Sam Smith wrote in his legendary book “The Jordan Rules,” “(Coach Phil) Jackson’s message all year was not that the Bulls shouldn’t be emotional, nor that they should turn the other cheek. … Strike first, Jackson said; let strength grow out of weakness. But he also knew that his players needed to remain composed.”
The result, then, was Jordan, typically reserved and internally focused, running down the court and bellowing in the face of Pistons forward Dennis Rodman: “We’re going to kick your butts. I’m coming after you.”
Absent pass rush
The Vikings defense was not primarily responsible for Sunday’s disaster, but the lack of a pass rush was jarring, especially in the context of the forthcoming playoffs. On Sunday, the Vikings only generated pressure on 21.4 percent of the pass-rush snaps, their lowest amount of the season.
Za’Darius Smith tallied zero pressures for the first time all season. Danielle Hunter amassed one hurry. That level of production is how you end up with plush pockets like this:
It’s also not like Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was releasing the ball particularly quickly. This season, he is releasing the ball after 2.68 seconds on average, according to Next Gen Stats. On Sunday, he released the ball after 2.7 seconds on average.
The Packers’ success running the ball may have instilled some hesitancy in the Minnesota pass rushers. That, however, does not excuse an effort that cannot be replicated if the Vikings hope to win games when it matters most.
Other notes
• On Monday, O’Connell referred to right tackle Brian O’Neill’s calf injury as “pretty significant.” O’Neill met with doctors Monday to evaluate the severity of the injury. Meanwhile, O’Connell said his “hope is that” center Garrett Bradbury will be healthy enough to return for the playoffs. For now, Oli Udoh and Chris Reed are slated to start Sunday against the Bears at right tackle and center, respectively.
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• O’Connell indicated that the Vikings plan to operate strategically with their starters Sunday against the Bears. If the 49ers beat the Cardinals, the Vikings are locked into the No. 3 seed. A 49ers loss, however, and the Vikings could potentially host two playoff games, which is why O’Connell indicated Monday that his plan will likely be “more subtle than” sitting the starters entirely.
• Vikings cornerback Chandon Sullivan is allowing the second-highest passer rating in the NFL on throws to pass catchers in the slot, according to Pro Football Focus. Opposing quarterbacks have targeted him a league-high 77 times; 62 of those passes have been caught for 745 yards.
(Top photo: Justin Setterfield / Getty Images)
