Rozier has been a lot better than most probably realize this season.
The 29-year-old combo guard is averaging career highs in points (23.2) and assists (6.6) while scoring with right-around-league-average efficiency.
In a one-to-one comparison with Lowry's scoring volume, that's a massive upgrade. Rozier is almost tripling Lowry's points-per-game output.
While Rozier's numbers (at least in terms of volume) will come down a bit on a team with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, he should still be able to put at least a little bit of a charge into an attack that's currently 21st in points per 100 possessions.
That's especially true when you consider all the time missed by the aforementioned trio of Heat players. When one or more of them misses a game now, Rozier will presumably be there to pick up some of the slack (though he's missed 11 games himself this season).
Rozier can also help a bit on the playmaking front. He hasn't had a ton of opportunities to do that on a team with LaMelo Ball, but he is averaging a career high in assists, is almost three per game above Lowry in that category and averaged 7.3 per 75 possessions when he played without Ball this season.
On a team that already gets plenty of creation and distribution from Butler, Adebayo and Herro, Rozier will bring another layer of dynamism and unpredictability for opposing defenses to deal with.
Finally, there's the defensive end, where Dunks and Threes' estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices) says Rozier has been far worse than Lowry.
And while that number and the loss of Lowry's craftiness and experience may be causes for concern, you can bet that Rozier will be more motivated to defend on a title contender than he was in Charlotte. His 6'8" wingspan makes him a much better theoretical fit in Miami's defensive schemes than Lowry, who has a 6'2" wingspan.
If you want to nitpick this deal, you could maybe say that Miami could've held onto that pick and made an aggressive push for someone slightly better (like, perhaps, Dejounte Murray), but now we're into hypotheticals again.
Miami needs a boost on offense now. Rozier should give that to them, and this really wasn't a huge price to pay for him.
