Quiz time: what do Lauri Markkanen, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges have in common? They were the top four vote-getters for last season’s Most Improved Player award, and all of them were in their fifth or sixth NBA seasons.
Of course, they weren’t the only players who took their games to another level last year. Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox, Mikal Bridges, Jaren Jackson Jr, Kyle Kuzma, Markelle Fultz, Kevin Huerter and Zach Collins also posted career-best stats in numerous categories, and all of them were in their fifth or sixth seasons as well.
Advertisement
As far as timing goes, Year 5 and Year 6 of an NBA career seems to be the right balance of youth and experience — players are right around their athletic peak, improving their bodies and enhancing their skills on a weekly basis. They’ve also been around the block a few times, so player tendencies are now first-hand knowledge, rather than something that must be looked up in scouting reports.
So which fifth- and sixth-year players are most likely to turn heads this year and finish the season with multiple votes for the Most Improved Player award?
Here are my Top 10 candidates:
1. Jordan Poole — Washington Wizards
Over his past two seasons with the Warriors, Poole averaged exactly 30.0 minutes per game, while starting 94 of his 158 regular season games played. Not only does he get a fresh start in Washington, but he’ll be starting every game and playing closer to 35 minutes per contest this coming year. So we know the typical playing time stat bump will happen, but what other improvements can we expect from Poole?
First, let’s remember that between Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Monte Morris and Jordan Goodwin, the Wizards have lost 40% of their total points scored, 32% of their total rebounds and 45% of their total assists from last year’s squad. That rebounding figure isn’t huge, but those point and assist percentages are grandiose. So naturally, I’m projecting Poole to make big strides in his scoring and assists, but don’t underestimate how valuable his free throw shooting is going to be.
In 2021-22, Poole’s 92.5% FT mark led the entire league, but he attempted just 3.5 freebies per game. While his efficiency behind the 3-point arc faltered last year, he did a much better job of creating contact and drawing fouls, attempting 5.1 free throws per game and converting 87% of the time. But what about the games where Stephen Curry didn’t play last season? In those 26 games — which is a pretty solid sample size — Poole got to the free throw line an intriguing 7.2 times per game. So how many players shot 87% FT or better last season while attempting 7+ freebies per game? Just five: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Damian Lillard, Trae Young, DeMar DeRozan and Kevin Durant. Most people know that Poole has excellent upside this season, but it might be even higher than you think.
Advertisement
2. Deandre Ayton — Portland Trail Blazers
Well, the big man got his wish. Ayton has been wanting more minutes and touches than he received in Phoenix over the past three years, and he’ll get plenty of both in Portland. Still just 25 years old, Ayton will get a chance to grow and develop with Portland’s young nucleus, while also becoming more of a vocal leader now that he has five years of NBA experience under his belt.
In terms of counting stats, Ayton’s career-highs in points, rebounds, assists and blocks per game still come from his second season in the league, when he showed so much promise as an ultra-mobile big man with a soft shooting touch. I don’t blame you if you’ve given up on Ayton in recent years because he hasn’t progressed much since then, or because he doesn’t have that killer instinct on the court. However, you may want to give Ayton one more chance to see what he can do. While Portland isn’t going to win a lot of games because of him, a breakout season from Ayton could lead your fantasy squad to championship glory.
3. Anfernee Simons — Portland Trail Blazers
It seems like lots of people are fixated on the tantalizing upside of rookie Scoot Henderson, and/or touting second-year guard Shaedon Sharpe as a top sleeper based on how he finished out last season, and deservedly so.However, what about the guard who averaged 21.1 points, 4.1 assists and 3.4 threes per game last season, and after five years of NBA experience and tutelage under Damian Lillard, is now brimming with confidence and league-wide knowledge?
When compared to Henderson and Sharpe, Simons should be much more efficient and consistent on a game-to-game basis. Remember that Simons was in their shoes before and it took him several years to figure things out but, now that he’s turned the corner, there will be a lot more ups than downs in Year 6. Proven veteran Bradley Beal almost always gets drafted ahead of Simons, but isn’t it quite possible that Simons surpasses him this season?
4. Cameron Johnson — Brooklyn Nets
I wouldn’t officially call last season a breakout year for Johnson, since he missed roughly 10 weeks due to a torn meniscus in his right knee and only played in 42 games. But during his 25 games in a Nets uniform, he averaged a solid 16.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals and 3.5 free throw attempts per game, which led to career highs in all of those categories.
Advertisement
Johnson enters his fifth NBA season knowing that not only will he be playing 30+ minutes almost every night, but that he’ll be one of his team’s top offensive weapons as well. For an example of how great a leap players can make during their fifth seasons, look no further than Johnson’s teammate, Mikal Bridges. Before last season, Bridges was viewed as a defensive-minded player who had never scored more than 14.2 points per game in a season. Even his biggest supporters didn’t view Bridges as a legit No. 1 option on offense, but that’s exactly what he blossomed into upon joining the Nets.
Another plus for Johnson is the pleasant revival of teammate Ben Simmons, who is still one of the best in the league at pushing the pace and generating quality 3-point attempts. So look for Johnson to be the recipient of many crisp passes from Simmons this season. If Johnson makes a big leap, somewhere around 18 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 treys and 1.5 steals per game is within reach.
5. Daniel Gafford — Washington Wizards
Gafford started last season coming off the bench for the Wizards and, over his first 35 games, averaged a mere 6.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.5 assists and 1.1 blocked shots over 15.2 minutes per game. Over those first two months, he was also likely dropped in numerous leagues. However, after earning a promotion to the starting lineup, Gafford finished his year with a bang, averaging a solid 10.9 points, 6.5 boards, 1.6 assists and 1.4 blocks in 24.9 minutes over his final 43 games, while shooting a sweet 72.5% from the field and a surprising 73.3% from the foul line.
Can Gafford average similar numbers — or even better — over a full 82 game season? He’ll get the chance to do just that now that Porzingis is out of town and has been replaced by aging veterans with limited upside in Mike Muscala and Danilo Gallinari. Gafford should also develop some nice chemistry running the fast break and pick and rolls with his new partner in crime Jordan Poole. Just like how two Blazers might finish in the Top 5 of the Most Improved Player voting, we might see two Wizards finish in the Top 5 as well.
6. Grant Williams — Dallas Mavericks
Williams has been steadily improving since he came into the NBA, and now he enters his fifth season with a fresh change of scenery. He played just under 26 minutes per game last year for Boston, but somewhere in the 32-to-35 minute range seems likely in Dallas, as they’ll desire his toughness on both ends of the floor. Again, his stats are sure to improve simply based on this increase in minutes.
However, if Williams thought he was getting quality looks thanks to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, imagine how he’s going to feel playing alongside Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. He’s made 40.3% of his 3-pointers over the past two seasons combined, but that number jumps to 44.5% on corner threes, which account for roughly half of his 3-point attempts. With a simplified role and plenty of experience under his belt, look for Williams to really shine this season.
7. Coby White — Chicago Bulls
Much like Ayton, White’s career highs in minutes, points, rebounds, assists and threes per game all come from his second season in the league. In fact, during that 2020-21 season, White was one of just five players 20 years old and under who scored over 15 points per game. The other four players who did that were Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett, so it’s fair to say that White hasn’t quite lived up to the hype since then, especially when compared to those other four.
Advertisement
But every new season is a chance for NBA players to reinvent themselves, while changing the narrative about how useful and impactful they are. Things are already looking up for White, as it’s seeming like he’s going to get first crack at Chicago’s starting point guard role after starting just two games all of last season. During his first couple of preseason games, White has also displayed an improved command of the ball and better decision-making, while being aggressive at getting into the paint. It may have taken a while for White to find his NBA niche, but don’t be surprised if things fall into place for him in Year 5.
8. De’Anthony Melton – Philadelphia 76ers
A lot like Simons getting a sweet bump thanks to Damian Lillard being traded, Melton is just a trade away from taking on a much larger role in Philly. While there’s plenty of uncertainty surrounding James Harden’s future with the 76ers, one thing we know is that Melton has been a reliable role player for several seasons, and that he would surely welcome a larger role. Despite never having played more than 28 minutes per game, Melton has proven fantasy chops thanks to his defensive abilities.
We have a 20-game sample size from last season in which Harden didn’t play and Melton did, and in those games Melton averaged a well-rounded 12.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.1 threes per game. Needless to say, that combination of steals and threes is pretty rare. In fact, a player averaging 2+ steals and 2+ threes per game while playing 50+ games in a season has happened only 20 times in NBA history, and the last time it happened was during the 2018-19 season, when Harden, Paul George and Chris Paul all accomplished it. Now that I’ve pointed out this stat, don’t expect him to just fall into your lap at the end of your draft.
9. Mitchell Robinson — New York Knicks
If you were to ask Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau, I’m sure he’d tell you that he expects big things from Robinson’s upcoming sixth season in the league. That’s because he witnessed firsthand Joakim Noah blossom into an All-Star center in his sixth NBA season, when Noah’s minutes under Thibodeau jumped from 30.4 to 36.8 minutes per game and he evolved into one of the top centers in the league — from 2012 to 2014, Noah was an absolute beast.
No, I don’t expect Robinson to suddenly start playing 36 minutes per game or becoming an elite fantasy center, but I do foresee a career year coming up for the powerful big man. How Mitch-Rob finished last season was definitely encouraging, as he outmuscled and outhustled Jarrett Allen in the first round of the playoffs. While he’s not quite as bouncy as he was when he first came into the league, Robinson makes up for it with increased strength, improved knowledge of his opponents, and better defensive discipline.
10. Terance Mann — Los Angeles Clippers
Among all the players on this list, I feel the least confident about Mann, not from a talent standpoint so much, but from a role standpoint. That’s because Tyronn Lue played Mann just 23.1 minutes per game last season, and constantly moved him in and out of the starting lineup and from position to position, based on which teammates were out of the lineup. And unfortunately for Mann, Lue is still the Clippers’ head coach. But I believe that Mann’s talent and versatility will eventually win out and lead to bigger and better things in his fifth NBA season.
For starters, Mann is a smart and efficient scorer, having made 39% of his 3-pointers last season while also shooting 77% within three feet of the hoop, per Basketball-Reference.com. Compare that to his teammate Russell Westbrook, who shot just 31% on threes last season, while also making just 63% of his shots within three feet. Mann’s youthful energy will also be important this season for an aging Clippers squad that has eight players on their roster who are 30 years and older. And, of course, the injury upside factor is still very present, as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined to miss 56 games last season. Mann tends to fall quite far in drafts, but he makes for a smart late-round pick in deeper leagues.
Advertisement
I wouldn’t be expecting a massive Markkanen or Gilgeous-Alexander-like leap from anybody on this list, but if you believe in the fifth and sixth year jump like I do, I suggest targeting at least a few of these players on draft day.
(Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
