It took over a month, but the Cardinals are finally resembling the team they thought they’d be. After a 10-24 start — the Cardinals’ worst in 50 years — they have won 11 of their past 15 games. That includes series wins over the Brewers and Dodgers during the last homestand. Thanks to a less-than-competitive division, the Cardinals still have a decent chance to make the playoffs. Heck, they could still win the National League Central.
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Still, for as well as the Cardinals are playing, there is plenty to address. They lack clarity on their outfield, and top prospect Jordan Walker is not on the roster. They are rostering three catchers thanks to the Willson Contreras controversy. The offense looks real — the Cardinals rank sixth in OPS (.772) and home runs per game (1.39) — but questions remain regarding the starting pitching’s durability.
What is the state of the Cardinals, you ask? Good question. Let’s get to that and more in Part I of a subscriber mailbag.
(Questions have been edited for length and clarity.)
Oscar Mercado has been great to start his major-league tenure with us, but why isn’t Jordan Walker getting at-bats up in the majors while Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill are on the IL? Wasn’t that a stressed point from Oli Marmol after camp? — Jonathan B.
How long until Jordan Walker is back in the majors? — Paul S.
Is Walker going to stay in Triple A until the Cardinals trade someone from the outfield? — Jack J.
Marmol notably campaigned to have Walker put on the Opening Day roster. Also, in the widely shared video of Jordan getting the news he made the team, Marmol cited that his ability to deal with adversity and not overreact to struggles or outside noise was the most important part of him making the team. What changed that Oli so quickly made Walker the odd man out in the outfield rotation and also no longer believed in his ability to deal with the adversity (if you could even call his performance that) and make the changes they wanted to see while still with the club? — Sam L.
It’s been a month since Walker was optioned to Triple A after making the jump to the majors straight from Double A. Let’s revisit some of the rationale behind that decision at the time (while also keeping in mind it wasn’t just Marmol who made this decision, John Mozeliak was also heavily involved).
“It came down to a couple of things,” Mozeliak said after optioning Walker in late April. “For his own development, we felt like he wasn’t getting a chance to really work on the things we needed him to do. … Then as we were starting to look at playing time going forward, we realized we were going to have days where he just wasn’t going to play. And when we look at his age and that he’s still developing, we felt it made more sense to go down to Memphis and work on some things.”
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All things considered, that does make sense. The decision to option Walker certainly wasn’t popular with fans, but there was logic behind it, especially when it came to evaluating Walker’s career progression. Walker’s ground-ball rate was higher than it had ever been in the minors, and the traits of his swing and offensive profile that made him one of the top prospects in baseball were missing at the major-league level. By sending him down, Walker could work out the kinks of his swing without the pressure of performing in the big leagues every day.
Another instrumental factor in Walker’s demotion was the fact the Cardinals had an overcrowded outfield, and nobody was stepping up to claim consistent playing time. That situation hasn’t changed, with the exception of Lars Nootbaar. The outfield is still crowded, and the front office needs to figure out who they can trust and who they are comfortable moving on from (but more on that later).
Also, Walker is still ironing out his swing. He’s hitting .217 with a .650 OPS and just two home runs in Triple A, a far cry from his usual numbers. That’s to be expected — the organization is asking a 21-year-old top prospect to make some significant changes. Asking Walker to make those adjustments at the major-league level would be unfair. He wouldn’t have consistent playing time to make those adjustments, for one. Also, as Marmol has repeatedly said, the big leagues are not the developmental leagues.
Walker will be back with the Cardinals at some point this season, but for multiple reasons, now isn’t the time. When his swing is right and the Cardinals have their outfield figured out, we’ll see Walker again.
How many more chances does Tyler O’Neill realistically have? We have so many outfielders as it is and with Walker in Triple A, I feel like O’Neill could be put in a package for pitching, which we need so desperately. — Jonathon H.
Cardinals have too many good outfielders. Which ones will be traded first? I’d think O’Neill and Juan Yepez are trade bait but who else is on the list? — John D.
What (or rather who) is the future of the Cardinals outfield? It feels like Lars Nootbaar is pretty much set, but who’s possibly going to get traded out of Carlson, O’Neill, Walker, Yepez and Mercado? — Valentin V.
Which outfielder is the best piece to trade for pitching? — Bryce D.
The outfield figures to be one of the most perplexing areas of the roster (second only to the rotation) until we arrive at the trade deadline. To make this easier, let’s group the outfielders based on their likelihood of being traded.
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Highly unlikely: Nootbaar, Walker. Nobody is untouchable, but these two are pretty close.
Semi-likely: Carlson. He likely wouldn’t net too impactful of a return, unless he was part of a package. Additionally, when he’s healthy, Carlson has the ability to be an impact player on both sides of the ball. He’s shown flashes of it; now it’s just a matter if he can do it consistently. On the other hand, Carlson is only 24 and isn’t eligible for arbitration until 2024. An up-and-coming team could be intrigued by Carlson’s potential.
Likely: O’Neill, Yepez. If the Cardinals are entertaining trade offers for their outfielders, I too believe they’d start with O’Neill and Yepez. During a recent interview on 101 ESPN, Mozeliak delivered a telling quote on O’Neill, who has played only 29 games after dealing with various injuries again.
“One of the things you need to have happen with position players is the ability for them to play,” Mozeliak said. “That’s a skill. The ability to show up every day even when you’re not feeling 100 percent and being able to go.”
O’Neill has not been able to demonstrate that skill throughout his Cardinals’ tenure. If the Cardinals are open to landing a major trade, I suspect they’d lead with O’Neill. His power and speed — along with his Gold Glove defense — make him an alluring piece for any team, but his inability to stay healthy (along with the organization publicly disputing his hustle) diminishes his trade value. Still, O’Neill could be the headline in package, and players like Yepez or Burleson could be tacked on. I’m inclined to think the Cardinals would be more open to trading Yepez than Burleson. Yepez’s bat is impactful, but his defense is lacking, so much to the point that the Cardinals don’t feel comfortable starting him in the outfield. Yepez is an enticing piece for a rebuilding team in need of a platoon-able designated hitter, and St. Louis doesn’t seem to have room for him at the moment.
Potential pieces: Alec Burleson, Mercado, minor-leaguers Luken Baker, Moises Gomez. These two wouldn’t move the needle much but could be packaged to add value to a potential deal.
Do you trade Paul DeJong while his power surge continues and his value is theoretically higher, or do you keep him as your everyday shortstop/thump off the bench? — Michael P.
If Paul DeJong keeps hitting, what are the odds Tommy Edman is dealt this summer? — Jason S.
What has Paul DeJong’s resurgence done for the timeline of Masyn Winn? — Michael N.
OK, on the count of three, everyone say, “I’m sorry Paul DeJong.” One … two …
I’m kidding (mostly). DeJong’s resurgence this season hasn’t just drastically changed his future with the club, it’s also drastically altered the Cardinals’ production. Entering play Tuesday, DeJong’s .289 average and .992 OPS ranked among the Cardinals’ top three in each category. He’d homered in eight of his 83 at-bats and his 14 percent barrel percentage is remarkably higher than his marks in 2022 (9.8) and 2021 (10.6).
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Given how DeJong’s last two seasons have gone, the skepticism that this would be the year things clicked for the 29-year-old was warranted. The last season DeJong’s average was higher than .200 came in 2020, and his offensive performance was so poor last season he was optioned to the minor leagues. It was understandable to be pessimistic that this year would be any different.
But both the front office and management believed the changes DeJong made over the offseason were legit, and since coming off the injured list to start the season in late April, DeJong has been a main contributor to the Cardinals’ offense. He’s all but regained his starting shortstop job because of it. Due to this, I don’t think the Cardinals would shop DeJong at this time. Would he be available for the right price? Surely, as would the vast majority of the players currently rostered. But, especially given his solid defense and how instrumental he is to the offense, I’d expect the Cardinals to hang on to DeJong tight.
Now, how does DeJong’s comeback tour impact the other middle infielders, such as Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan and eventually Masyn Winn? That’s where it gets complicated. With Carlson and O’Neill on the injured list, Marmol is still able to find ample playing time for Gorman, Edman and Donovan, mainly because the positional flexibility of the latter two allows both to play the corner outfield.
Eventually, the organization will have to make some hard decisions. Gorman isn’t going anywhere, and he’ll continue to play every day (yes, regardless of opposing pitcher-handedness) as he has been the team’s top offensive contributor. Donovan and Edman are both two of the league’s top defensive players in terms of versatility, and both have shown increases in power this year despite profiling as contact hitters the majority of their careers. When the Cardinals inevitably explore the trade market this summer, both infielders will be high on opposing teams’ radars. It would be tough to part with either player, but if the Cardinals had to choose, I believe Donovan would be the player they opt to keep, as he has more years of control remaining.
Now let’s talk Winn. It’s hard not to get caught up in the hype of the 21-year-old’s ceiling, especially after his performance in spring training. Let’s remember a couple of things though. The jump from Double A to Triple A is a significant one, but even that pales in comparison to the leap from Triple A to the big leagues. Winn needs time to develop before he’s ready for the majors — and that is OK. For example, Winn’s .239/.322/.361 slash line is the lowest it’s been in his professional career. That indicates he’s still adapting to the change in skill level and would benefit from more developmental time. DeJong’s resurgence has bought Winn some time. But let’s be clear: The Cardinals were never going to rush Winn. They believe he’s a special talent, and he’ll be called up when he’s shown he’s ready, even if it’s not until next year at the earliest. Winn is a ways away. Whether DeJong performed wasn’t going to change that.
How justified is the perception of organizational dysfunction that was created by the bad start and Willson Contreras debacle? — Morgan P.
In my opinion, very. Over the first five weeks of the season, the Cardinals had the manager publicly squabble with a starting outfielder, sent down their top prospect not even a month into his major-league career and booted their free-agent starting catcher acquisition from behind the plate for the “foreseeable future,” a decision that lasted all of nine days. And let’s not forget the team’s record at the time. Though there were some justifiable reasons for their decisions mentioned, that doesn’t excuse how poorly the organization handled all of the above.
The Cardinals are a winning organization. They have a reputation as one of baseball’s finest organizations for a reason. Rarely do you see this team in such disarray, and perhaps that’s why there has been so much perceived dysfunction: the organization was simply in unfamiliar territory. Their series of debacles over the first quarter of the season has been masked by the team’s current hot streak (winning fixes everything, after all), but we shouldn’t forget how disastrous this club looked in April and early May. I don’t think we’ve yet seen the ceiling of the Cardinals this season, but we certainly have seen the floor. The organization would be in deep trouble if they hit rock bottom again this year.
(Photo of Paul DeJong: Paul Halfacre / USA Today)
