The Big 12 is in the midst of a big shift. Four teams entered this year (Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, BYU) and two massive teams leave next year (Texas, Oklahoma). The latest in realignment mean Colorado is coming back from the Pac-12 and will be joined by Utah, Arizona and Arizona State.
The Big 12 will be barely recognizable from what it was in 2010. Five of the 12 teams in the league from that year are elsewhere (Nebraska, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma). By 2024, 10 of the 16 teams will have joined (or rejoined) the league within the last 13 years.
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Before Texas and Oklahoma leave behind the league, they have a chance to win it one more time. The win total over/unders for both teams are at 9.5 on BetMGM, the highest totals in the league.
Will they meet those numbers and meet in the conference title game? The Athletic’s Justin Williams and Sam Khan Jr. made their predictions against the win total lines for all 14 teams in the league. Note that win total lines are for regular season only and do not include conference title games or bowl games.
For more on the Big 12, check out what Austin Mock’s model projected the win totals to be for every team in the conference.
Texas 9.5 wins
Williams: Under. If not now, when? The Longhorns got that top-seed preseason media poll ranking slapped on them, meaning the “TeXaS iS bAcK” jokes will sting that much more if the Longhorns can’t deliver. Texas does get Kansas State and Texas Tech at home, but it will get everyone’s full-tilt best shot on its way out the door to the SEC. This team certainly has the talent to hit the over, but I don’t know if it has all the other intangibles. Feels like a 9-3 season to me.
Khan: Over. This has to be the year for Texas. Everything lines up. The offensive skill talent is there, the entire offensive line is back, its best defensive player is back, and there’s depth across the board. The schedule is manageable. If this team doesn’t win 10 games and make it to the Big 12 championship game, consider it a disappointment.
Oklahoma 9.5
Williams: Under. High (gambling) expectations for a program that went just 6-7 (3-6 Big 12) in 2022. Brent Venables has flipped a significant portion of the roster entering Year 2, and the schedule sets up nicely for the Sooners, aside from Bedlam on the road on Nov. 4. OU should be much better this season, but I’d like to see Venables do it at Oklahoma before I sign on for double-digit wins.
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Khan: Under. Five one-score losses in 2022, including four by three points, makes the Sooners seem ripe for a bounce-back year. They attacked the transfer portal well and had a great 2023 recruiting class. If Dillon Gabriel gets banged up again, they now have better reinforcements at quarterback with five-star prospect Jackson Arnold. I’ll take the slight under at nine wins for the improved Sooners but wouldn’t be stunned if they went over — they’ll need to win Red River to do that.
Kansas State 7.5
Williams: Over. After finishing at 10-4 as the Big 12 champs in 2022 and returning a number of key contributors, going under would be a considerable disappointment for the Wildcats. K-State has a couple of tricky but winnable nonconference matchups against Troy and Missouri, and while it doesn’t have BYU, Cincinnati or West Virginia on the schedule — three of four bottom teams in the Big 12 preseason poll — the Wildcats avoid Oklahoma and finish with Kansas and Iowa State.
Khan: Over. With Will Howard and the entire offensive line back, the Wildcats seem like a shoo-in to go over. They should be one of the best teams in the league and they appear in good position to get back to the Big 12 title game.
TCU 7.5
Williams: Over. Not much respect for the national runner-up Horned Frogs. Max Duggan and Quentin Johnston are gone, among others, but Chandler Morris — who started the opener over Duggan last season — is back at quarterback, and the Horned Frogs have brought in the likes of Jojo Earle and John Paul Richardson. The biggest loss could wind up being offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, who left for Clemson, and the Frogs end the season with a gauntlet of Texas Tech, Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma. Still, it feels like Sonny Dykes and TCU will keep riding last season’s momentum, so I’m going over.
Khan: I’m torn on this one. On one hand, it’s hard to ignore how much production was lost. On the other, TCU used the portal really well to fill the holes, and you wonder if the staff can recapture some of the magic that helped the Frogs make that run a year ago. My gut says this is still a good team with a very manageable schedule in the first six weeks. I’ll take the over.
Texas Tech 7.5
Williams: Over. Save me a spot on the Red Raiders’ bandwagon. I’m joining the folks who are gassing up Joey McGuire ahead of his second season in Lubbock. Texas Tech went 8-5 with a bowl victory last year but also got things cooking with four straight to end the season. It had terrible injury luck at quarterback but also brought back two capable signal-callers in Tyler Shough and Behren Morton. I’m not sure if I’m ready to put them in the Big 12 championship just yet, but I’ll definitely take the over.
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Khan: Over. Between the returning production on the roster, the staff continuity from Year 1 to Year 2 and the way the Red Raiders play, there’s a lot to like here. This feels like an eight- or nine-win team. The Week 2 clash against Oregon will be telling.
UCF 7
Williams: Seven feels like a fair number for the Knights in Year 1 of the Big 12 and probably a push. They should be the best of the four newcomers, but the schedule isn’t doing them any favors with road trips to Boise State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and old AAC rival Cincinnati. UCF will travel more miles than any team in the league in 2023 — nearly 15,000 combined — so if it hits the over, it will have earned it.
Khan: Gus Malzahn’s team feels the most ready roster-wise of the Big 12’s newcomers for success. There’s depth and experience there. The schedule has its challenges, however, with three of the first four Big 12 games on the road. This team should go bowling at least, and hitting seven wins certainly seems doable.
Baylor 6.5
Williams: Over. I’m bullish on the Bears after a down year in 2022 when they dropped a number of close games. An offense that was 54th in the country in yards per play and seventh in the Big 12 in points per game added some quality pieces up front and at the skill positions. A Week 2 matchup against soon-to-be conference foe Utah should be a fun one that could set the tone for the season. I’m taking the over, thinking the bad luck in close games wears off in 2023.
Khan: Over. When Jeff Grimes’ wide zone-heavy offense is clicking, it’s hard to stop. Baylor outfitted quarterback Blake Shapen with more talent around him, which should help the passing game. Bringing back Matt Powledge (he was on the 2021 staff before going to Oregon) as the defensive coordinator is an intriguing move that I can see working out well. I’ll take the over and Baylor to get to seven or eight wins.
Williams: Under. The Pokes are the team in this conference I’m most confused by. They started 5-0 in 2022 and went 6-1 at home for the season but still finished 7-6 after the wheels fell off following an October win over Texas. Then a bunch of talent left via the portal, including four-year starting quarterback Spencer Sanders. The schedule could be the saving grace in 2023 — five home games, no Texas, no TCU, no Texas Tech and all four newcomers — but I’m still taking the under.
Khan: Under. The Cowboys did a solid job in the portal to address their personnel losses, but there are a lot of unknowns here, from how transfer Alan Bowman will fare at quarterback with only minimal snaps the past two seasons to the team’s transition to a 3-3-5 under new defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo. The Pokes go slightly under here at six wins.
Kansas 5.5
Williams: Over. This number seems a tad harsh after the Jayhawks reached their first bowl game since 2008 last season and return quarterback Jalon Daniels, among others. They do face the top four teams in the Big 12 preseason poll — Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech — but I still like the over and a second-straight bowl bid.
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Khan: If Daniels is healthy — he was limited in preseason camp by a back injury but will start the opener — I like the over. The Jayhawks’ offense is a headache to deal with when he’s in the lineup. Lance Leipold is a builder, and Year 3 should be his best yet in Lawrence.
BYU 5.5
Williams: Under. The Cougars have recent experience with a power-conference-heavy schedule as an independent program, but I’d go under for their first run through the Big 12. They have to travel to Arkansas in Week 3, get only four league home games and face TCU, Texas Tech, Texas and Oklahoma in a six-week stretch.
Khan: Over. BYU has won fewer than five games only once in the past 19 years — 2017, Kalani Sitake’s second season. The Cougars have won at least seven every year since then. The September slate gives them a chance to build some early momentum. If they can, they can go bowling.
Iowa State 5.5
Williams: BYU, Cincinnati, Iowa State and Kansas all play each other this season, and all have over/unders at 5.5 wins. Whichever fairs the best from that middling round-robin should have a good shot at bowl eligibility. The Cyclones finish with Texas and Kansas State, but victories over Kansas and BYU the two weeks prior could get them to six wins before that stretch.
Khan: The Cyclones are hard to pin down. The defense should be solid because, under Jon Heacock, it always is, but they lost some valuable pieces. How much will the offense — which was atrocious last year — improve with the staff changes? What to make of the quarterback play with Hunter Dekkers (one of multiple Cyclones caught up in a gambling investigation) sidelined? Can Iowa State swing some of those six one-score losses its way? Having so many questions has me leaning under.
Cincinnati 5.5
Williams: Under. Bowl eligibility would be a successful season for the Bearcats as they enter the Big 12 under first-year coach Scott Satterfield, but the schedule could be their saving grace. Cincinnati gets five league home games and faces its three fellow newcomers — BYU, Houston and UCF. The concern is whether a turned-over roster will have the depth necessary for a power-conference slate, which is why five wins feels more plausible than six for the Bearcats.
Khan: Under. There’s still good talent on defense that should keep the Bearcats in a lot of games. But the amount of offensive personnel turnover is significant. That group doesn’t get a ton of time to mesh before the schedule challenges arrive, with a road game at Pitt, a Big 12 opener vs. Oklahoma and a late Friday night trip on a short week to BYU all in the first month.
West Virginia 4.5
Williams: Under. The Mountaineers might have to go way over for coach Neal Brown to save his job, but anything more than five wins would be a pleasant surprise for WVU, which faces Penn State and Pitt in nonconference and has road trips to TCU, UCF, Oklahoma and Baylor. I’m taking four wins and the under.
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Khan: Over. Brown said at Big 12 media days that he was “upset” about being picked last in the preseason media poll and that he disagrees with that assessment. So do I. With 132 career starts returning on the offensive line and a deep backfield led by CJ Donaldson, I can see the Mountaineers’ ground game getting even better. I’m intrigued by the defensive portal additions. The schedule is tough, but still, I like the over here.
Houston 4.5
Williams: Under. I like the additions of Donovan Smith at quarterback and David Ugwoegbu at linebacker, who both have Big 12 experience — Smith starting eight games for Texas Tech in 2023 while Ugwoegbu racked up 109 tackles for the Sooners. And I believe we will see a power-conference talent bump from the Cougars on the trail and in the portal moving forward. But the first season in a new league? I’m going with four wins and the under.
Khan: Getting Smith at quarterback was huge, and the defense needs to bounce back after a rough 2022, but there’s a lot of talent there. Do the Cougars have the depth needed to compete in the Big 12? I’ll say they have enough to certainly win more than four games. I’ll take the slight over and peg them at five wins.
(Photo of Dillon Gabriel: John E. Moore III / Getty Images)
