Alexander Mattison is set to become the No. 1 running back for the Minnesota Vikings.
ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Thursday that the Vikings plan to release Dalvin Cook on Friday if they don't trade him before then. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise, since they have been trying to trade him this offseason but haven't found much of a market due to his $14.1 million cap hit for the 2023 campaign.
Mattison signed a two-year deal worth up to $8 million to remain with the Vikings in free agency earlier this offseason.
Ian Rapoport @RapSheetThe <a href="">#Vikings</a> re-signed RB Alexander Mattison with the plan for him being the starter. While there have been trade talks surrounding Dalvin Cook, no deal materialized. He'll be free, with several teams -- including the <a href="">#Dolphins</a> -- set to inquire.
Even though Cook's efficiency declined last season—he had the third-highest percentage of carries (24.3 percent) that went for zero or negative yards out of 42 qualified running backs, according to Alec Lewis of The Athletic—he will be difficult to replace in fantasy football.
A third-round pick by the Vikings in 2019, Mattison has seen his fair share of playing time over the past four seasons. He had more than 100 touches in each of his first three years and has 14 total touchdowns in 59 career games.
Cook has surpassed 1,100 rushing yards in each of the past four seasons and averaged 11.5 total touchdowns per season during that span. The four-time Pro Bowler ranked 39th among all fantasy players in PPR scoring during the 2022 campaign.
Mattison's performance has been erratic throughout his career. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry as a rookie and 4.5 yards per carry in 2020, but he's been under the 4.0 mark in each of the past two seasons.
Lewis noted Mattison had a higher success rate than Cook on non-explosive runs (20 yards or fewer) by a wide margin (45.9 percent to 33.2). He also had a better rate of chunk gains (runs of eight to 12 yards) by more than 4 percentage points (14.86 to 10.22).
All of these stats do come with the caveat that Mattison is operating from a much smaller sample size than Cook. He had only 74 rushing attempts last season, compared to 264 for Cook.
When Mattison saw his most playing time in 2021 because Cook was unavailable for four games due to injuries, he had his fewest yards per attempt average (3.7) on a career-high 134 carries.
Minnesota's offensive line could help the running game next season, particularly the tackle duo of Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill. But they were on the roster in 2022 when Mattison averaged 4.2 yards per touch.
Head coach Kevin O'Connell has praised Mattison for showing in practices this offseason that he's capable of handling a three-down role.
If the Vikings are set on making Mattison the same type of player as Cook, who averaged 311 touches over the past four seasons, it's hard to argue he won't be an RB2 in fantasy based on that type of volume.
But 2022 fifth-round pick Ty Chandler and seventh-round rookie DeWayne McBride could cut into those reps if Mattison gets off to a slow start.
