Fantasy football productivity can vary a lot from season to season. We tend to think of a player steadily improving, reaching a peak, and declining into retirement as the ‘normal’ arc of an NFL career. But that isn’t always the path. In this article we’ll look at players who, for whatever reason(s), took a sharp dive at some point in their career but have a chance to regain peak, or near-peak, production.
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It’s easy to write these situations off, especially if you were the one who got burned by their sudden and unexpected lack of production, but as Geno Smith likes to remind us, that could be to our detriment. Below are a few players I think deserve another chance on your fantasy roster this season. They’ve all seen their ADP dip due to their lack of value in 2022, which makes them somewhat less risky on draft day. For each player, I’ll take a holistic view of their history, their attributes, as well as their current situation and when to draft them. Here’s to second chances!
Aaron Rodgers (QB, NYJ) — Rodgers has played a full season of football in all but two years of his 15-year career as a starting quarterback. The 2022 campaign was his worst fantasy finish overall among those 13 full seasons (239.2 fantasy points) and provided the worst per-game average of his career (14.1 fantasy points). It was ugly. The loss of Davante Adams was a factor, as were some personal, off-field issues. Signing with the Jets has seemingly provided a new lease on football life for Rodgers, giving me a lot of confidence that he makes it back into the Top 10 and nearer to 20 fantasy points per game this season.
Garrett Wilson is going to make his job easy, as will a strong run game through Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. The Jets defense is among the best in the league, and based off the Vegas line for implied team totals, the offense is expected to be the 11th-highest scoring in the league. The combination of a supremely skilled veteran quarterback like Rodgers, who doesn’t miss his reads/throws very often, with familiar target Allen Lazard and fellow veterans Corey Davis and Mecole Hardman — not to mention two of the best young skill players in the league, including Offensive Rookie of the Year Wilson and would-have-been-OROTY Hall — should get you excited to wait on Rodgers this year. He’s going off the boards at around QB13, and along with Daniel Jones, is one of the best arguments for the Late Round QB strategy in single-QB leagues this year.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT) — Johnson, heading into his fifth year with the Steelers, is coming off a very disappointing fantasy season, averaging just 8.1 half-PPR points per game. He ranked sixth in targets (147, T-Garrett Wilson) and 10th in red zone targets (18, T-Russell Gage (?!)), but with a meager 58.5 percent catch rate and zero scores, finished as WR39. To be fair, expectations for the Pittsburgh pass offense in 2022 were not great. The transition to QB Kenny Pickett wasn’t as smooth as it could have been, as Najee Harris got off to a slow start dealing with a lingering foot injury and wasn’t as involved in the pass game as many hoped.
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In their second year with Pickett and George Pickens, things are looking up in Pittsburgh. The team brought in veteran receiver Allen Robinson II, but I expect Johnson and Pickens to remain the primary pass-game options with tight end Pat Freiermuth, Robinson and Harris mixing in. If Johnson sees 147 more catchable targets this season from an improved Pickett, he has a real shot at getting right back into the Top 20 among WRs. Pickens is the flashier option for sure, but Johnson’s skill set won’t be ignored by this coaching staff and shouldn’t be overlooked by you either — especially if you went elite QB/TE or hammered running backs earlier in your draft.
Calvin Ridley (WR, JAC) — I’m buying what Ridley is selling this offseason. He was suspended for the 2022 season for gambling and missed time before that with the Falcons due to mental health issues. He has been very forthcoming about the struggles he faced over the past two years and throughout his life. He was on top of the world as WR4 in 2020 with 1,374 receiving yards and nine touchdowns for Atlanta. Fast forward to 2023, Ridley has signed with the Jaguars, who have been nurturing his return to the game physically and mentally.
Jacksonville is a loaded offense this season with quality options at every skill position and was above average in pass attempts per game last year. Trevor Lawrence is a high second-tier quarterback this season after finishing as QB8 last year (4,113 yards passing, 25 TD, 8 INT; plus five rushing TDs), a huge leap forward from his rookie season. Even if Lawrence improves only a little more this year, there will be opportunities for Ridley (WR18) and Christian Kirk (WR30) to exceed their draft day value.
Read more: 2023 fantasy football draft kit: Rankings, cheat sheet, player projections, mock drafts and more
Darren Waller (TE NYG) Waller is, of course, a household name by now, but it took him four seasons to reach fantasy relevance with the Raiders (90/1145/3 in 2019). The 2020 season was even better as he dominated with a line of 107/1196/9 in 15 games. He missed time in both of the past two seasons, failing to meet fantasy managers’ expectations two years running. Those who were burned by taking Waller as the third, fourth or fifth tight end off the board are probably rightfully hesitant to go back to that well. A change of scenery might be just what Waller needed, however.
The Giants are a well-coached, well-rounded team poised to make a push into the NFL’s elite. Daniel Jones is getting better every year and the Giants are making a clear effort to surround him with talent, which is where Waller comes in. They also signed Parris Campbell in the offseason, and are returning Saquon Barkley, Isaiah Hodgins, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard. There’s a lot of speed in that group, but I like Waller’s size, hands, and ability to make the competitive catch. Waller is also fantastic after the catch, finishing behind only Alvin Kamara in yards after catch (594) in 2020. Health will have everything to do with whether Waller can make it back into the elite tier of tight ends this season because by any other measure, he’s already there (but you can still draft him in the seventh round).
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Jonathan Taylor (RB IND) — Taylor is an easy bet to bounce back in 2023. As I write this, he is a Colt and expected to remain a Colt — for the near future, at least. He played in 11 games in 2022, managing 192 carries for 861 yards and four rushing touchdowns. He added 28 receptions for 143 yards and zero scores. In 2022, Taylor posted personal worsts in each statistical category, including three lost fumbles. Still just 24 years old, he is going off 2023 draft boards as RB8 in the latter half of the second round.
Why should you buy in? The Colts have nowhere to go but up and they made several moves that indicate they’re serious about turning the franchise around. Hiring head coach Shane Steichen and drafting Anthony Richardson address the two most glaring problems from last season. With Richardson already named the Week 1 starter, the Colts have a full month to gel prior to the regular season. I’m not saying they’ll be in the Bills, Eagles or Chiefs range, but it will be better than last year’s 30th-place finish in points per game (17.0). A dual-threat QB like Richardson has been shown over and over to be a boon to a capable running back like Taylor. Simply being able to better move the ball down the field is a boon — Taylor led the league in 2021 with 18 rushing touchdowns. Get him close and he can punch it in — Taylor also led the league in missed tackles and yards created that season. As the offense improves and Taylor stays healthy, he is a shoo-in to meet or exceed his current draft capitol.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, BAL) — The way I remember it, OBJ was the poster child for elite WRs taking over fantasy football. Starting off with a 91/1305/12 line in only 11 rookie starts was some introduction to the fantasy landscape. Since 2014, Beckham has averaged at least 10 half-PPR fantasy points per game in every season — including those years with the Browns — except in 2021 with the Rams. In 14 games for L.A., Beckham only connected for 44/537/5 before tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl. On the one hand, there is only one way for Beckham to go — Up. He’s spent 17 months rehabbing, getting stronger and working on his game to be without limits heading into this season with the Ravens. His route running and athleticism at the point of catch are amazing. The Ravens are a solid, well-coached and balanced offense, and they’re looking to continue to develop Lamar Jackson as a passer. On the other hand, OBJ is 30 years old and competing with at least Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman for targets. We seem to get excited about a different Ravens receiver every year, only to be disappointed by the fantasy outcome of those hopes. That’s why Beckham is last on this list — his range of outcomes is anywhere from Top 10 to total bust. Still, as the WR55 off the boards in Round 11, there aren’t many players with his potential going that late.
(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
